Stop fantasizing about a 10% monthly compound return that will create miracles in three years. The reality is harsh: if you earn a steady 10% on 100U per month, you’ll only have a little over 3000 after three years; but in the market, some have seized three 10x opportunities, turning 100U directly into 100,000U. The difference isn't in the technology, it's in the mindset. You're on a slow mathematical train while others are on an emotional rocket.
Now let’s look at the data that speaks for itself: Binance's 2024 contract data shows that accounts with leverage above 5x have an average survival time of only 17 days; users who trade frequently more than three times a day have a 92% chance of being in the red. Don’t think you are in that 8%; in the face of data, there are no chosen ones, only a note in the liquidation record.
Those who can survive on violent leverage all have a cycle hunting tactic. From monitoring the 3-hour line to the weekly line, and then combining volatility to determine safe leverage limits: during the BTC 3000 dollar era, daily volatility was ±80 points, you can safely use 50x; when it rose to 10,000, volatility turned to ±200 points, a maximum of 20x; at 58,000, volatility soared to ±2500 points; don't be foolish, even 3x is too much.
How to slice the time cycles? I use the 'Three Cycle Positioning Method': big cycles for bull/bear judgment, mid cycles for capturing trends, and small cycles for entry and exit points, with the 4-hour chart managing the rhythm. Why did I dare to bottom fish when ETH rebounded from 2947? The on-chain whale cost, quarterly options pain points, and EMA21 all converged there, creating a triple resonance in structural signals. I add 5% to my position every 2% drop, with total exposure not exceeding 30%, and set the forced liquidation line at -15%. Not only are you steady, but you can also profit comfortably.
Risk control in this area is more like a physical formula in metaphysics. I use the 'Position Equation': Maximum Position = Account Net Value × 0.02 ÷ (Opening Price - Stop Loss Price). For example, if you have a 100,000U account and set a 300 point stop loss, you can open a maximum of 6.66 BTC. How to read the liquidation thermometer? If the funding rate exceeds 0.1%, immediately cut leverage in half; if exchange reserves surge? No matter how much you want to trade, hold off first; if open contracts suddenly spike? Directly hedge and short, don’t hesitate.
In the end, those who can always make money never greedily chase daily trends; they only wait for those once-a-year opportunities. The monthly MACD just crossed bullish, large net outflows from exchanges, and active development from project teams—all three signals resonating together is their timing to act. And how does 'dumb money' execute? They only buy the top five mainstream coins, enter in November, use 1-2x leverage, and directly stop loss if the annual line breaks, operating only once or twice a year while still profiting more than a bunch of day traders.
Three ultimate tenets: First, befriend volatility; the greater the market fluctuation, the smaller the leverage, clear out positions when BVOL exceeds 120; Second, build an antifragile structure: 70% spot + 20% low leverage + 10% cash, and no single loss should exceed 1% of total assets; Third, be immune to 'deification.' Stop believing in the myths of someone turning hundreds of times in a month; those hide behind the sources of capital, team coordination, and black box massive losses.
In this market, only those who survive have the right to talk about getting rich quick. Huge profits are not based on luck, but on living against human nature. Don’t play probability games; build a win-rate system. This is the violent hundred-fold rule belonging to professional traders.
