The operator's deep 'V' performance this afternoon is not the end of the bull-bear battle, but the meat grinder has just been powered on!
Dear friends, did you manage to ride this V-shaped roller coaster this afternoon? Ethereum dropped from 3520 to 3460, looking like it was about to collapse, but at 3450 it was suddenly supported, and now it has bounced back around 3500. Many are asking: Is it going to surge to 4000? Or will it fake out and continue to drop below 3400? I will explain it clearly with my 5 years of painful experience!
Why is 3450 the 'vital point'?
The signs of large holders bottoming out are too obvious: On-chain data tells me that a large amount of chips have been traded in the 3450-3480 range in the last three months, equivalent to a group of big players building a 'moat' here. When it dropped to this level in the afternoon, buy orders suddenly surged threefold, clearly indicating large funds stepping in to support the market.
The signal of being unable to fall further has appeared: the 4-hour chart shows a classic 'bottom divergence' - the price reached a new low, but the downward momentum has actually shrunk. I saw this move when I bottomed out at 2500 in June, and later enjoyed an 18% rebound!
Precise layout
3600 is the 'ghost gate'
Don't be fooled by the rebound! There are nearly $86 million in short orders stacked in the 3600-3700 range. What's worse is that the daily downward trend line is pressing down at 3550, forming a 'death cross' with the July decline channel.
To surge to 4000? First, overcome three major mountains!
Macroeconomic knife: The Federal Reserve stated 'there may not be a rate cut this year,' the dollar soared, and Bitcoin broke below 113K following the U.S. stock market last night.
The only hope: Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced it will buy $3.7 billion worth of Bitcoin (approximately 100,000 coins), but the vote will only take place in September, which is not a solution for immediate needs.
Technical mystery: The monthly MACD golden cross is indeed a bull market signal (after appearing last December, it surged 68%), but now it is pressed into a daily bear market structure - like dancing with iron chains!
Practical strategy (follow it to avoid pitfalls)
Aggressive: At the current price of 3500, you can try a mini long position, but the stop-loss must be set at 3449 (falling below 3450 means exiting the position).
Conservative: Hold your bullets, wait for a breakout above 3600 and stabilize for an hour before chasing, target 3800 (it's not embarrassing to watch before the breakout).
Taboo: Never heavily bet on a breakout near 3550! That’s the concentrated firepower zone for bears!
Now! Immediately! Open the exchange and set your stop-loss order!
Tonight is the calm before the storm - will you follow the strategy and plant a red flag on the 3450 city wall, or will you be pressed down by bears below 3400? Remember: a bull market is waited for, life is preserved!
Insightful point:
There are no gods in the crypto world, only hungry wolves and fat sheep. This afternoon's deep V is not a reversal signal, but a 'test paper' for the operators to gauge the strength of bulls and bears. If you want to survive in August, remember two iron rules: admit defeat when breaking key levels, and don’t get too excited when pushing against resistance levels! Want to know my current position?#加密项目
