The market in the past few days has been very similar to the script I predicted earlier.
Bitcoin #BTC officially retraced to test the two key supports of 114 and 112. The trend hasn't been too surprising, but whether it can hold depends on whether U.S. stocks can stop their decline first. The recent plunge in U.S. stocks began with the major non-farm payroll correction wave and has continued with various macro data coming out this week. The expectation for a rate cut in September has been repeatedly massaged, and the market is struggling to hold up, beginning to decline continuously.
Moreover, crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy and CB have been weakening for two consecutive weeks, and the crypto market naturally hasn't been immune. Overall, this wave of washing has basically been completed.
I mentioned before that if BTC can break above 140,000 this time, I would consider exiting. Sure enough, after stagnating at a high level, it has fallen all the way back. The volume has clearly not kept up, and the trend is much weaker than previous breakouts. This time, the breakout is just a small bullish candle; the bulls are starting to lose strength, and it's no longer the rhythm where a surge in volume can pull out new highs.
Currently, 110000 is a key support level. If it can't hold, although the bull market hasn't ended, the rhythm will be disrupted. #ETH isn't looking good either, directly dropping 500 points in a big bearish candle, breaking the previous low. If it can't hold in the short term, it may have to retrace to just over 3000.
Did you keep up with this wave of amazing operations in Ethereum?
But don’t be too pessimistic; I believe what’s more important now is to observe the momentum structure of BTC — it’s still within the bull market framework, but the pace of increase has slowed down. The previous three surges all exploded after consolidation; this time, if it can pump upwards in small steps, we still need to see if the bulls have resilience.
Speaking of ETH. Many people with altcoins are hoping for ETH to strengthen; if ETH doesn't move, altcoins lack elasticity. So, the key focus I'm watching next is whether ETH can stop the decline and stabilize around 3500. If it can't hold, then 3000 is the bottom line.
The liquidation wave was also concentrated and released yesterday. The total liquidation amount across the network reached 1 billion USD in 24 hours, with 217,000 people being liquidated. The market value evaporated by 6.9% overnight, and the entire crypto world has once again returned to the stage of 'bloodied chips'.
However, from my personal trading perspective, I actually prefer this 'waterfall + despair' rhythm.
Why? Because some coins have started to drop to the price levels I am willing to enter.
For example:
$SOL : This coin has been sideways since the beginning of the year, and its heat and momentum have been exhausted. But the ETF has basically been confirmed, which is a transformative event. Often at such times, a weak structure will welcome a fundamental reversal. I've already started to secretly position myself.
$DOGE : Dogecoin has retraced to the right position first, with prices stabilizing in the Fibonacci 0.5-0.618 retracement zone. Technically, it has formed a classic 123 reversal structure. The market refuses to drop, bullish.
$PENGU : It has quickly returned to the neck line area of the arc bottom; if it can hold the key support this time, the structure will remain intact, and there may be a sprint at any time. Keep an eye on it and don't relax.
#HYPE: One of the hottest altcoins this round. Although it recently broke the upward channel, it actually provided an opportunity for early accumulation. I've already marked several key support levels on the chart; if it continues to retrace, just wait for the signal to enter. Don't forget, $HYPE is one of the few potential coins discussed alongside $BNB this round.
Summary: The market is still within a bull market structure, but this is not the stage for a full-on attack; rather, it's the rhythm of 'stealth accumulation'. If BTC can hold 110000, there’s still a chance to move upwards; if ETH can stabilize at 3500, altcoins will have vitality; and for a few coins that have completed technical retracements, now is the time to gradually build positions.
Looking at the big picture, I am bullish, but in the short term, we must respect the rhythm. The bull market doesn't wait for anyone, and actions can't be slow.
That's all for the article! If you are confused in the crypto world, consider planning and harvesting with me!
