Last night's market provided everyone with a lesson.
At three in the morning, I was awakened by my phone vibrating. I opened it to see Bitcoin and Ethereum plummeting, and the market was in despair. I then checked various communities, analysts, and KOLs, and everyone was shouting 'buy the dip', 'long on the lows', 'bull market correction, rare opportunity'...
But this time, I have no faith.
1. When everyone is shouting to buy the dip, has the market really bottomed out?
History is always remarkably similar - every time there is a crash, a bunch of 'masters' jump out, shouting 'the bottom is in' and 'the bull market is unchanged', only for the market to continue to fall, and retail investors who buy the dip get deeper and deeper until they are wiped out.
This time is no different:
Hong Kong's policies are tightening, stablecoin regulation is being implemented, and market liquidity is being impacted.
The situation in the Middle East is tense, and the risk-averse sentiment has driven up gold prices, but Bitcoin has instead been sold off.
U.S. tariffs postponed to August 7th, the shoe has not dropped, and capital is hesitant to enter the market recklessly.
These signals indicate that market sentiment is extremely weak, and it is not the time to 'buy the dip'.
2. Why am I firmly shorting?
The amount of liquidations has surged: over 100,000 people liquidated in 24 hours, indicating that leveraged long positions have been wiped out and market panic has not ended.
Institutions are on the sidelines: Although there is capital inflow into ETFs, large funds are better at 'buying low' and will not step in at the initial stages of a crash.
Geopolitical uncertainty: The conflict between Iran and Israel could escalate at any time, and market risk-averse sentiment is still brewing.
When everyone is shouting 'buy the dip', it often means the market hasn't truly bottomed out. The real bottom is often when no one pays attention, and no one dares to buy.
3. Investment should have its own logic, rather than blindly following the trend.
The two most dangerous phrases in the crypto world:
"When others are fearful, I am greedy" (but how do you know if others are truly fearful, or if you are just catching flying knives?).
"Having dropped so much, it should rebound now" (the market can drop to the point where you question your life, like LUNA, FTX).
This market trend once again proves: investment should rely on one's own judgment, rather than being swayed by emotions or 'masters'.
4. Key points ahead
August 7th U.S. tariff policy: If the implementation is negative, the market may drop again.
Middle East situation: If the conflict escalates, Bitcoin may continue to be sold off as a risk asset.
Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations for September: Currently at a 68% probability, if it heats up, it may lead to a rebound.
Summary:
The market is never short of opportunities; what is lacking is patience and the ability to think independently. When everyone is shouting to buy the dip, it might be worth calmly considering - do they really see an opportunity, or are they just repeating past 'beliefs'?
Investment is ultimately a game of confronting human nature.
#美联储利率决议 #美国加征关税 #加密项目 #加密市场回调 #币安HODLer空投TREE
