• 2017: → Peak $20K

  • 2021: → Peak $69K

  • 2025 peak: ?

Based on history, math, and mining power. This is why $300K is not a dream — it's the road ahead 🧵👇

Bitcoin doesn't fluctuate randomly — it fluctuates according to code. Every 4 years, the Bitcoin block reward is halved. This halving event reduces supply, sparks a strong price increase, and ends with a catastrophic crash. This has happened 3 times. And it will happen again.

The most recent halving event took place in April 2024. That moment triggered the start of the next cycle. Historically, Bitcoin peaks about 12–18 months after a halving. Try calculating: the next major peak will coincide with October–November 2025.

The price peak of Bitcoin often follows production costs. Miners are the backbone of the Bitcoin network. BTC rarely falls below their breakeven price. In fact, price peaks are often 3–5 times higher than the mining cost of 1 $BTC.

As of July 2025, the cost to mine 1 $BTC is around $95,000. This figure includes energy costs, hardware, and network difficulty. Production costs have doubled since 2023 — and continue to rise. This is the foundation beneath the market.

History shows $BTC peaks around 3–5 times mining costs. Let's analyze:

- 2017: Mining cost around $1,000 → $ BTC $20,000

- 2021: Mining cost around $10,000 → $ BTC $69,000

- 2025: Mining cost around $95,000 → $ BTC $285,000– $475,000

So, $300,000 is not a crazy number — it's completely consistent with history.

This calculation is extremely simple — and so are the crashes. After each peak, Bitcoin plummets dramatically:

  • 2014: -85%

  • 2018: -84%

  • 2022: -77%

Even if it drops 70% from the peak of $300,000, $BTC would still be around $90,000.

Bear markets always come about a year late. If we peak in October–November 2025... Expect the real bottom to form around October–November 2026. Cycles never lie - people just forget them.

But this time, there's a change: Spot ETF. For the first time, they are bringing significant capital from institutions into $BTC. Billions of dollars are flowing in passively — and this is driving everything.

Bitcoin has reached out globally. From the $BTC treasury of El Salvador to sovereign wealth funds and publicly traded companies… Bitcoin is becoming an economic pillar — not just an asset. That's why this cycle may continue.

Let's recap the roadmap:

  • April 2024: Halving

  • October–November 2025: Peak around ~$300K

  • Mining cost = ~95K

  • October–November 2026: Around ~$80K

  • From 2027 onwards: Recovery and reset

This is not wishful thinking.

Your move — do what the market won't do:

  • Accumulation

  • Take profit at the end of 2025

  • Buyback at the end of 2026

And don't forget DYOR!