As we enter August 2025, Dogecoin investors are faced with a challenging question: will the history of 'fiery red August' repeat, or will the post-Bitcoin Halving trend create a remarkable turnaround?

August – The familiar obsession of DOGE

Throughout 11 years of trading history, Dogecoin has generally not performed well in August. The data shows:

  • 7 out of 11 years of August ended in the red.

  • Only 4 out of 11 years recorded growth.

  • According to CryptoRank, median return reaches -9.98% and average around -0.79%.

Notably, if August declines, the decrease is often quite severe. In the last 3 years alone:

  • 2020: decreased -9.98% after the bull run.

  • 2023: sharply decreased -17.9%.

  • 2024: continued to decrease -16.9%.

This makes many investors hesitant as they enter August this year.

Hope from the post-Halving trend

However, history also shows a noteworthy highlight: the year following Bitcoin Halvings often sees strong growth in August for DOGE.

  • After the 2016 Halving, in August 2017, DOGE increased by +20%.

  • After the 2020 Halving, in August 2021, DOGE even surged by +34.2%.

The past year 2024 was a Bitcoin Halving year, so many experts expect August 2025 could replicate the positive scenario seen in 2017 or 2021.

Comparing growth patterns

Interestingly, in the previous two cycles (2017 & 2021), DOGE sharply declined in July before surging in August. But 2025 is different: DOGE increased nearly +35% in July, breaking the traditional pattern. This could signal:

  1. Positive: The upward momentum from July will continue into August, reinforcing the post-Halving uptrend.

  2. Negative: The market has 'let off steam' too early, making it difficult for August to maintain its upward momentum.

Outlook and strategies for investors

  • Optimistic scenario: If the post-Halving effect continues to play out, DOGE could potentially increase by 20–30% this month, even reaching a new short-term peak.

  • Negative scenario: If buying power weakens and the history of 'red August' repeats, DOGE could correct by 10–15%.

Investors should:

  • Closely monitor price behavior around key resistance levels.

  • Combine on-chain analysis to identify cash flow.

  • Tightly manage risk, especially if prices start to drop sharply at the beginning of the month.