When non-farm data surprises, the crypto market shakes! But remember—sharp declines are opportunities, sharp rises are risks, and sideways movements are torture.
Last night, the U.S. July non-farm data dropped a bomb on the market with only 73,000 jobs added, and the previous two months were revised down by 258,000 jobs, causing global assets to go haywire: U.S. stocks plummeted, U.S. bonds rallied, the dollar plunged, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September soared from 40% to 88%! With data of this magnitude, ETH cannot remain unaffected.
ETH 30-minute chart: Bulls and bears in a 'tug of war'
Key technical signals
Trend line resistance: The two descending yellow-green trend lines act like a 'pressure cooker lid', and ETH is currently like a grasshopper in the pot, jumping but struggling to break through.
Critical points:
3520 BOLL middle track: Must break above to be bullish, otherwise, it remains a bear's territory.
3420 short-term support: If it breaks, it may trigger panic selling, but it is also the 'golden pit' that bottom-fishers are waiting for.
Indicator cryptic language:
MACD struggling below water: The shrinking green bars indicate that the decline has stalled, but the fast and slow lines are still below the zero axis under bear control.
Weak trading volume: 43,000 ETH traded, resembling a 'constipation market'—without volume, there is no direction.
OBV funding line flat: Big funds are on the sidelines; retail investors shouldn't rush to be cannon fodder!
Summary: ETH is currently stuck around 3500, 'playing dead'. 3520 is the short-term pivot point for bulls and bears; if it breaks through, you can try going long with a small position, but if it falls below 3480, it's time to run!
The impact of non-farm payrolls on the cryptocurrency market
This non-farm data directly conveyed two major signals to the market:
Concrete evidence of economic recession: Employment data has collapsed, forcing the Fed to cut rates earlier with an 88% probability for September, and expectations of dollar devaluation are rising—long-term, this is positive for risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
Short-term liquidity panic: U.S. stocks plummeting, funds pouring into the bond market; ETH may follow suit as institutions need to top up margins, but after the drop, it could become a 'golden pit'.
Case study: In March 2023, when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, ETH plummeted 15% in one day, but then the Fed quickly injected liquidity, and ETH rebounded 40% in a month! 'Panic selling' is often an opportunity for medium-term positioning.
Today's trading strategy
Short-term intraday
Radical: After breaking 3520 and retracing without breaking it, you can try going short with a small position targeting 3480, stop-loss at 3555.
Conservative: Wait for stabilization around 3420 before taking action; if it dips below 3400, you can accumulate in batches.
Medium-term 1-2 weeks
The non-farm report strengthens expectations for rate cuts; if ETH drops below 3400, consider dollar-cost averaging, betting on a rebound after the Fed's shift in September.
Risk warning
Beware of sharp dips: After the non-farm report, market sentiment is extreme; ETH could plunge 5% and then bounce back—don't hold positions!
Pay attention to U.S. stock market opening: If the S&P 500 continues to fall, ETH may also decline.
Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, and die in euphoria—what side do you choose now?
