📉 Trump vs. The Fed: Rate Cuts, Tariffs, and the Crypto Crossfire 🧠

On August 1, President Trump signed a bold tariff order — yet days earlier, he was demanding the Fed slash rates from 4.5% to 1%, claiming it would save $1T annually and fuel growth. 🎯

But here’s the paradox:

🔺 Tariffs = inflation risk

🔻 Rate cuts = inflation relief

Trump wants both — but they cancel each other out.

🗣️ On July 22, he accused Fed Chair Jerome Powell of political sabotage. By July 30, Trump called Powell “too angry, too stupid” — signaling his intent to break the Fed’s independence if needed. His Fed visit (July 24) turned heads. Legal pushback under IEEPA blocks firing Powell (for now).

📊 Economic Backdrop

Q2 2025 GDP beat expectations ✅

CPI cooled to ~2.3% 📉

But tariffs on 40+ countries — 35% Canada, 39% Switzerland, 25% India — could reverse that.

The Fed’s July 30 decision:

Hold rates at 4.25–4.5%

9–2 vote: Trump’s appointees wanted cuts

Markets dropped September cut odds to 46% (from 64%)

🪙 Impact on Crypto

✅ Positives if Trump Wins on Cuts:

Liquidity Surge → More capital to BTC, ETH & altcoins

USD Weakens → Bitcoin rallies as a store of value

BTC near $115K, targeting $150K–$185K

Strategic BTC Reserve (~200K BTC, $17B) + ETH NFTs surge

Retail + institutional inflows accelerate (J.P. Morgan: stablecoin lending grows)

🚫 Negatives from Tariff Inflation:

Tariffs may force Fed to hold or raise rates

Undercapitalized alt markets face volatility risk

ETH forks or resistance at $4,500 could trigger liquidations ($44.2B OI)

15bp bond spread widening = broader risk-off sentiment

🔍 Bottom Line:
Trump’s rate cut push is a double-edged sword for crypto:
🎯 If cuts land without inflation, crypto wins big.

⚠️ But tariffs could backfire — forcing tighter policy and draining liquidity.

In the balance: Bitcoin’s next breakout or a deeper fork-era slump. #TrumpTariffs #MarketPullback #SECProjectCrypto #Write2Earn