Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs of 15%-41% on goods exported to the U.S. from 67 trade partners, causing declines in the U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets. Non-farm unemployment data will be released tonight, related to the interest rate cut expectations for September, so macroeconomic impacts need to be monitored.
On July 31, Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 114.8 million USD, while Ethereum ETF experienced a net inflow for 20 consecutive days, reaching 17 million USD.
The Hong Kong (Stablecoin Regulation) comes into effect today, and the Monetary Authority has opened applications for stablecoin issuance licenses, marking a significant step in stablecoin development. The first application period is from August 1, 2025, to September 30, 2025, and applications can be made for single or basket fiat-backed stablecoin licenses. The threshold is high, and the first license is expected to be issued early next year.
Coinbase plans to launch an 'all-in-one trading platform' (i.e., RWA platform) for U.S. users in the coming months, which will include tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and more. Depending on compliance and authority, it may become a leader in this field and reduce the potential for explosive growth in the sector.
On-chain data shows that while the market absorbed the outflow of 80,000 Bitcoins last week, 97% of the circulating supply cost is below the current price, indicating that holders are almost all in profit. The upward momentum is weak, and a rise may easily trigger supply outflow risks. Historical data has also shown that after crossing the red line, horizontal consolidation is often followed by a decline.
In terms of the market, Bitcoin's rebound yesterday may have been a trap to attract buyers. The tariff event accelerated the volatility, and it may not hold at 115,000. We need to watch the non-farm data; the next support level is 111,000. Ethereum is temporarily stable at the 3,600 support level. If Bitcoin drops or breaks down, the next support is 3,500.
Regarding altcoins, the previously strong coins have weakened, indicating that short-term bulls may struggle to dominate. A decline from high levels may trigger a supply surge, and strategies need to shift from aggressive to defensive.
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