The start of August has been marked by constant fluctuations, but not all news is bad.
Recent reports indicate that the SEC is sending positive signals of 'light regulation + clear framework', laying the groundwork for a more moderate policy expectation in the entire crypto market.
From an internal structure perspective, there are currently three major supportive factors in the market:
Large unlocks have decreased by 52%, significantly reducing inertial selling pressure;
The on-chain supply of USDT and USDC is expanding in sync, leading to a rebound in stablecoin activity;
ETH spot ETFs have entered a staking mode, the narrative is gradually heating up, and a new round of application windows has opened.
Additionally, after a brief net outflow on July 22, Bitcoin ETFs have begun to attract funds again on the 25th, and the daily trading volume in the crypto market has started to warm up, with marginal buying returning quietly.
As for risks, the market is already familiar with them: the upcoming FOMC meeting and the countdown to Trump’s tariffs still revolve around inflation and policy games, with limited short-term impact unless a black swan event occurs.
The current market focus remains on mainstream assets:
BTC continues to hold a significant advantage
ETH performs relatively well driven by ETF expectations
Altcoins are still in a bottom consolidation phase, lacking sustained incremental capital support
Whether August can break the 'altcoin curse' remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the market is slowly warming up, and direction is more important than sentiment.
