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Initial jobless claims hit the highest level since October last year: The signaling significance cannot be ignored
Latest data for July 2025 shows that initial jobless claims in the United States reached 248,000, higher than the market expectation of 235,000 and also higher than the previous value of 229,000. This surge may not be coincidental, but rather a deeper turning signal — the U.S. labor market may be cooling down.

📉 Slowing job market = Is the Federal Reserve closer to cutting interest rates?

Theoretically, a weakening job market would ease inflationary pressures, thereby strengthening the Federal Reserve's case for cutting interest rates. But the reality is not so straightforward:

If data continues to weaken in the coming weeks, especially with non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate worsening simultaneously, the Federal Reserve will face the reality of "having to act";
However, if this is a short-term fluctuation (such as seasonal factors or one-time layoffs), it will not directly shake the Federal Reserve's current "wait-and-see hawkish" tone.
I personally believe this is a “forward-looking signal” worth closely tracking, especially for risk assets like Bitcoin and the Nasdaq. Once it is confirmed that employment is slowing down overall + inflation remains controllable, the Federal Reserve's stance will soften, and the market will react in advance.
But right now, it is not yet the time for an “all in risk” approach. It feels more like the eve of "starting to prepare for a position shift".

Conclusion summarized in one sentence:

Employment data is loosening, and market sentiment is preemptively rehearsing easing expectations, but a “real turn” requires more confirmation. Stay flexible, don’t rush ahead, and don’t fall behind.
#美国初请失业金人数 #bnb