On the early morning of July 31, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and the market had already psychologically prepared for this. However, unexpectedly, after the announcement, expectations for a rate cut in September plummeted, with the probability dropping below 50%, which significantly weakened market sentiment.
As a result, US stocks and the crypto market fell in sync: Bitcoin dropped to a low of $115,700, Ethereum dipped to $3,670. Although there was a subsequent rebound, this rebound felt more like an 'escape window' and was an opportunity for investors who had not reduced their positions in time at high levels.
Looking back at the entire performance in July, whether it was Bitcoin, Ethereum, or various altcoins, the performance was quite strong, and there was a 'mini bull market' atmosphere. The core drivers of this rise came from expectations of a rate cut in September + technical rebound + favorable policies like ETFs, but now this logic has become uncertain, casting doubt on the sustainability of the market.
The most dramatic scene in today's market was SHIB's 'short trap' counterattack, which may lead to a new wave of rallies after shaking out positions.
In yesterday's market, SHIB (Shiba Inu) became the most dramatic protagonist.
The original trend was precarious: breaking below the support level of 0.000012, losing the 50-day moving average, and a decrease in trading volume and momentum — various bearish signals clustered, shorts rushed in, and trend traders also joined the shorting queue.
But the result was a 'counterattack': SHIB suddenly rebounded strongly, quickly recovering lost ground and re-establishing above $0.000013. This wave was interpreted as a 'trap for shorts' — after shaking out the weak hands, it provided better entry opportunities for the bulls.
From a technical perspective, the upper resistance level is in the range of 0.00001339 to 0.00001350. As long as there is a volume breakout, bulls may dominate a new round of upward movement. The lower levels of 0.000012 and 0.00001256 are key supports, which remain quite solid.
Bitcoin is poised for a breakout, with a 'pressure cooker structure' potentially about to explode.
Bitcoin has currently entered a typical volatility compression phase. Since the last surge to $119,000, the price has been trapped in a narrow range, with volatility continuously narrowing, forming a 'pressure cooker' shape that is about to explode.
More importantly, every slight pullback has been supported by the 21-day moving average, forming an ascending triangle structure, which is a typical power accumulation consolidation pattern. If the upper resistance zone of $119,000 to $120,000 is broken with volume, a trend acceleration may occur.
However, if the surge fails and instead breaks below the upward trend line, one must be cautious about testing support areas around 116,200 or 111,200.
XRP stops falling and stabilizes, quietly emerging with a new structure.
Against the backdrop of significant volatility in most altcoins, XRP appears relatively calm. The price retreated from a high of $3.70 to $3.00, landing near the 26-day moving average, followed by a slight rebound.
This mid-term moving average has played the role of a 'launch pad' in many past market movements. If it can hold steady this time, XRP may gradually form a 'higher low' reversal structure.
In the short term, pay close attention to the pressure zone of $3.30 to $3.40. If there is an effective breakout, it will only be a matter of time before it challenges $3.70 again; conversely, if it breaks below the current support, watch for support around $2.60.
The market appears calm on the surface, but key turning points are approaching.
In the past 24 hours, although the overall market performance has not been intense, **'undercurrents are surfacing'**. After the Federal Reserve's decision, market confidence has shaken, Bitcoin is gathering strength at high levels, SHIB reversed to kill shorts, and XRP is stabilizing its structure, each at a critical technical turning point.
A new major market movement may erupt at any time, with capital and trends quietly being redistributed. For investors, this stage should focus more on structural opportunities, especially tokens that are brewing for an explosive rise at low levels.
The battle team still has space and will never let fans blow up! Get on board quickly!
Ongoing attention: SUI PEPE DOGE SOL ETH PNUT
