Last night, the market staged the expected 'pinning drama,' with Bitcoin briefly dropping below 1,143,000, and ETH also stepping back below 3,600. Waking up to see, I estimate many people have heartbreak from liquidation.
I mentioned yesterday that the pressure level at 117 would need another wave down, and here it is! BTC fake-breaking the previous low and returning to around 116; there is a bit of short-term rebound expectation during the day, but if the strength isn't enough, it will still probe the bottom again.
The overall structure is very critical now; BTC and ETH are following the script, hitting resistance and bouncing off support, still in a volatile pattern. #BTC pinned down to 1,143,000 and then rebounded directly, while #ETH held 3,600 and rose above 3,700, quite precise. There may still be a small short-term rebound, but if BTC drops below 1,140,000 and ETH breaks 3,500, it may head towards a deeper correction.
Don't chase shorts, and don't easily bottom-fish. Wait for a rebound before going short to be safe. The market is too grinding, and in terms of operation, it's better to wait a bit longer. The altcoin season hasn't officially started yet; the real big opportunities are still brewing.
However, my personal judgment is that this wave of adjustment is almost over, and the bottom may be seen by next week at the latest. After the adjustment ends, the direction will still be upward. I still maintain the view that the bull market window will open in August and September.
What retail investors need to do now is not to complain but to start laying out. Gradually buy quality targets; there may only be 1-2 weeks left to stock up, and then we will enter the main upward wave stage. Remember this: don’t say I didn’t remind you when the time comes.
SEI, MAD, and the ETH Foundation's counter-indicators.
A few days ago, SEI submitted an ETF application, combined with Circle's heavy investment, the heat of the chain may start quickly. The most effective way to pump on-chain has always been to hype memes first. $MAD is like that explosive spark, purely a gamble on probability, and the control behind it is highly probable. If it really becomes the first mainstream meme on the chain, then this opportunity will be significant.
However, there is now a problem; gmgn cannot view meme data on the SEI chain, and tracking addresses is a bit troublesome, which makes short-term operations slightly inconvenient.
Additionally, the ETH Foundation is selling ETH again. Every time they sell coins, it feels like they are pressing down on the market, intensifying the bearish trend, with altcoins becoming a mess. Those who are reluctant to cut losses are being 'market educated'; apart from the leading coins, many others are basically on the 'road to zero.'
Okay, let's continue to review the altcoins and their rhythm strategies.
#SOL: Target reached, support moving down, look for more purchases
SOL reached my preset level around 182 yesterday and indeed started to adjust. After losing 175, it currently retraced to around 167. In reference to ETH's potential support at 3510, SOL may need to wait until 157 to buy back safely.
#KAS: Weak rebound, medium-term pressure still high
Kaspa has risen 25% this month, which looks impressive, but in fact, it has only pulled back a bit from a six-month decline. Last week it fell another 9%, and the tug of war between bulls and bears is obvious. The current price is in the range of 0.0595 to 0.0916, with a high of 0.1078 and a low of 0.0438. RSI is neutral but momentum is bearish, making it unsuitable to chase after the rise; a pullback is still likely.
#XRP: Key resistance is breaking through, worth paying attention to the monthly closing.
XRP rebounded to a high of 3.17 today and is currently above the 3.15 line. The monthly line has a chance to close above the key resistance level of 3.03. If it can stabilize, it will be the first monthly line breakthrough of historical resistance since 2017 and 2021, which is significant. Combined with the 21-day and 33-day moving averages crossing upwards, as well as increased trading volume and liquidity, there is potential to open up the next round of upward space.
#SUI: Short-term has potential, but medium to long-term uncertainty remains high.
SUI has recently moved a bit, with an impressive increase of 38% in a single month, but it is still negative over six months. The fluctuation range is between 2.19 and 3.48, currently testing the resistance at 4.19. Indicators show a tug of war between bulls and bears, with RSI being neutral; there is some short-term opportunity, and the strategy is to buy on dips in batches. If support breaks, don't hesitate, better to leave first as a sign of respect.
Conclusion: This wave of pinning and washing may just be clearing obstacles for the market after August. Don't rush to act; wait for a rebound, see the direction clearly, and then choose suitable coins and rhythm to enter.
Whether you are holding the leading coins or trading on-chain, remember one thing: in a volatile market, surviving is the only way to qualify for the main upward wave.
That's all for this article! If you are confused in the crypto circle, consider laying out and harvesting with me!
