Market analysis on August 1, 2025

Since last night, the crypto market has once again welcomed a pullback, with BTC dropping to a low of below $115,000. This is also the lowest pullback point since BTC broke $120,000 nearly half a month ago. Ethereum, correspondingly, dropped to nearly $3,600, and it still hasn't managed to rise above $3,700. With every bull market pullback, the market is always filled with concerns, especially regarding Ethereum. In the past two years, every time it touched the resistance level of $4,000, it initiated a pullback and has never been able to reach its historical peak. The same situation has played out multiple times, making it hard not to wonder if this time will be different.

To conclude, I currently believe that this still constitutes a reasonable pullback. The narrative this round revolves around Wall Street funds, whether it’s the Ethereum version of MicroStrategy or stablecoin issuance, RWA development, etc., all of which are directly favorable to Ethereum. As for how the Ethereum version of MicroStrategy will proceed, just refer to the price trend of Bitcoin. When MicroStrategy continuously dollar-cost averages into Bitcoin, we are always filled with doubts and even worry that such a buying strategy may lead to a larger drop in BTC. In fact, Bitcoin has not only risen steadily but has also received strong buying support during the downturn cycle. Currently, it appears that Ethereum’s “MicroStrategy-ization” will continue, but recently the micro-strategies of altcoins have been so aggressive that U.S. stocks have experienced a short-term deflation process. After digesting this surge, Ethereum's value will be recognized by the market again.

The most direct data shows that the number of tokens held by the Ethereum Foundation has fallen out of the top three. It suddenly reminds me that when Ethereum’s price dropped previously, investors would shift the blame onto the Ethereum Foundation's selling. If this selling pressure did cause some decline, then this factor will gradually be excluded moving forward. Clearly, after Ether Machine joined the competition for Ethereum's MicroStrategy, U.S. companies will become the primary source of funds for Ethereum's opening in the coming period.

Another logical basis supporting Ethereum's rise is the development of stablecoins. Whether it was last year’s development through stablecoins (USDE) or the upcoming star project WLFI (USD1), including many DeFi protocols that have created stablecoins, they are basically using the Ethereum network as the main settlement layer. Additionally, Binance's recent launch of RWUSD (U.S. debt product) revolves around RWA products tied to the dollar, which is currently one of the most promising segments in RWA. It’s not that these stablecoins will directly create buying pressure for ETH; the core issue is that most of these stablecoins are issued on Ethereum. This not only signifies a strong recognition of themselves but also makes the network's head effect more pronounced. After all, whoever controls the scale of stablecoins holds the power.

Thank you for your attention and likes. #加密市场回调