Churchill once said: "Never waste a crisis." Since 2 AM, the price of Bitcoin has dropped nearly $4,500. Although there has been a rebound after a second retest, the strength is relatively weak. The teaching chain believes this is closely related to several recent data and events: the ADP data is bearish, causing the market to inevitably worry about tonight's non-farm data at 8:30 PM; and the Federal Reserve's decision at 2 AM yesterday clearly stated no interest rate cut, so a phase of arbitrage after the shoe dropped is also normal.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is around $115,500, and Ethereum is consolidating around $2,670. It is worth noting that today’s low price is only about $380 away from filling the gap in Bitcoin futures at CME—this gap may be filled or may stop the decline and rebound. If the gap is filled, a direct rebound is likely to follow.

The teaching chain judges that even if tonight's non-farm data is bearish and the market experiences selling, the decline will not be too large, stopping at the most in the $112,000-$113,000 range. The effective area of the previous box consolidation is between $116,000-$120,000, with the lower rail of the box at $116,000 as the starting point for a breakout. By measuring the space at a 1:1 ratio, around $112,000 happens to be a strong support level on the daily chart. In addition, the strongest liquidity clearing area around $116,500 has already been taken out, and from a liquidity perspective, the reference significance of this position has weakened.

MicroStrategy once again increased its Bitcoin holdings the day before yesterday, while the daily line of US stocks formed a shooting star yesterday, with the overall trend not yet broken, but the current market atmosphere is relatively weak.

The focus should be on the present while also looking to the long term. One can participate in the rebound today: if Bitcoin can stabilize above $116,500, one can continue to look upward; if it cannot stabilize, one can plan to short during the retest. If the non-farm data is bearish, pay close attention to the $112,000-$113,000 range below; if it can hold here, it may become a temporary bottom. For Ethereum, $3,680-$3,720 is also a good opportunity for spot positioning.

As Churchill said, there are always opportunities hidden within a crisis, and the nodes where fear and greed intertwine test each person's ability to seize opportunities. #币圈 #区块链