In the storm of blood and wind! After BTC's historical high, hidden dangers loom, and is ETH's 3.6% surge a deadly trap? Institutions have laid out their strategies, where do retail investors go?
On August 1, the crypto market was like a slaughterhouse soaked in blood! Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high of $115,300, but on the same day faced a giant whale sell-off, plunging 4.1% within 24 hours, directly piercing the key support level of $115,300. While Ethereum (ETH) briefly surged to $3665, it collapsed with the market sentiment, resulting in a 3.2% drop, leaving countless retail investors wailing in a 'sea of blood.' Behind this contest between bulls and bears, is it a scheme for institutions to harvest or a signal for the bull market to restart?
BTC: $115,300 is the lifeline, whales have shown their fangs!
'Either heaven or hell!' On BTC's candlestick chart, the support level of $115,300 is like the sword of Damocles. The technical analysis shows that if this price level is broken, the short-term market will directly test the strong support area of $113,500; but if it stabilizes, bulls will aim for resistance levels of $120,500 or even the previous high of $123,000.
Bloody Signal 1: Giant whales sell off, trading volume shrinks
Despite ETF's net inflow of $2.78 billion in a week and institutional funds continuing to 'support the floor,' the candlestick on July 17 has exposed a crisis - a divergence pattern of rising prices with shrinking volume, hinting at the exhaustion of upward momentum. An anonymous giant whale sold 12,000 BTC near $118,000, directly triggering a chain reaction of plunges.
Bloody Signal 2: The 'sickle' of the Federal Reserve hangs high
With the release of the US non-farm data on August 1 approaching, if employment data exceeds expectations, interest rate cut expectations will cool, and the dollar index rebound will directly pierce BTC's 'safe-haven myth.' The escalation of the Middle East situation further makes market sentiment anxious.
ETH: $3665 has become a bull graveyard, RSI overbought warning sounded!
The 4-hour candlestick of ETH is a 'death ballet'! The price of $3665 seems to break through the previous high but hides deadly traps - the RSI indicator breaks 70 into the overbought zone, and the MACD histogram remains negative, with the divergence pattern of rising prices and shrinking volume being more dangerous than BTC.
Fatal Trap 1: Mysterious funds supporting the floor, retail investors taking the bait?
This week, ETH ETF and corporate reserves increased by 391,000 (about $1.4 billion), seemingly 'positive,' but overall market sentiment is turning cautious. An on-chain analyst warns: 'Large funds are laying traps at the $3697 high position; if retail investors chase high, it will directly trigger a short squeeze!'
Fatal Trap 2: The 'vampire' of stablecoins is coming
The Hong Kong (Stablecoin Regulation) will take effect on August 1, and the entry of giants like JD and Ant Group seems to promote market compliance, but it may actually divert ETH's liquidity. A trader bluntly stated: 'Stablecoins are institutions' printing machines; retail investors' money will ultimately flow into their pockets!'
Bloody August: Non-farm data + Tariff deadline, the market may collapse!
On August 1, two major bad news detonated simultaneously:
US non-farm data: If new jobs exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations will cool, BTC/ETH may face a 'double kill';
US-China tariff truce expiration: If negotiations break down, funds will surge into stablecoins for safety, draining liquidity from the crypto market.
Radicals: Short BTC near $119,100, targeting $116,500; take partial profits when ETH rises to $3697.
Conservatives: Directly stop-loss if BTC breaks below $115,300, ETH watch the strong support at $3286; if lost, clear positions.
If RSI and MACD form a death cross resonance, immediately take partial stop-loss, otherwise, you will be 'blood washed'!
Personal opinion:
The market is always a hell of interwoven capital and human nature! The wild fluctuations of BTC and ETH are essentially a harvesting net woven by institutions using 'stablecoin compliance' and 'Federal Reserve expectation management.' Retail investors blindly chasing high are no different from catching flying knives with bare hands. But opportunities lie within crises - closely monitor the RSI death cross signal, strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline, and only then can you survive in the storm of blood and wind. Do you dare to bet that you are not a bag holder?
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