Tick tock, tick tock... October is near, and Bitcoin is on the edge with all indicators suggesting that we have entered the last 3 months of the bullish cycle that could push the price to touch $150,000 or even more if institutions continue to buy aggressively. How is this happening?
🕰️ What's the story with the fractal TikTok?
There is a well-known model in the market called the fractal TikTok that repeats after every halving. The reduction of Bitcoin mining rewards by half suggests that Bitcoin always reaches its highest price in the cycle between 518 to 546 days after the halving. The last halving occurred on April 15, 2024, so the expected peak could be around October 2025. We are currently exactly 77 days away from this countdown... which means if this model holds true, we are just a few months away from the peak!
📊 What do the market data say?
The movement of new investors; the coins that have been released in the past few months represent 30% of the activity.
Also, heavy holders are holding and not selling. The wallets that have held Bitcoin for 3 years or more are called LTHs; they are not moving or selling. The old supply absorption index indicates a balance between those buying and holding, and the ratio has reached 0.3, meaning that old holders are not worried and continue to HOLD... which gives the market stability.
In the calm of major financial institutions and ETF funds, they are buying regularly without wanting to show themselves to avoid igniting the market early. When institutions buy quietly = the market maintains its relative calm, and the price is stabilizing around 116K-120K until it gathers strength for the last strike that could reach 150K or more.
🔭 Expected scenarios.
The natural scenario suggests that the price could reach between $130,000 to $150,000 if institutions continue accumulating at the current rate. However, if there is a larger-than-expected influx into ETF funds and institutions start injecting money more aggressively, we could see numbers like $180,000. Conversely, if something negative happens, like sudden regulations or an economic crisis or a sudden crash, it's very likely the market could drop below $100,000 again.
⚠️ Don't forget the other aspects.
New regulations could emerge suddenly and disrupt the market; cyber attacks or breaches of major exchanges could spread fear of a global recession or a crash on Wall Street, which could negatively impact even if Bitcoin itself is not the cause.
You need to focus on news and indicators, not just the price.
💼 Don't chase the price.
Buy gradually using a DCA system, meaning distribute the amount over time instead of putting all your money in at once.
Set clear exit goals, for example, sell 25% at 130k and another 25% at 150k, and leave the rest in the portfolio for the optimistic scenario.
Monitor institutions and ETF funds. If you find news about new licenses or massive inflows, that means an upcoming rise.
Don't forget to protect yourself. If your portfolio is large, you might want to use protective tools like options or hold a percentage in stablecoins as insurance against sudden drops.
🎯 We are on the brink of the most important phase in the Bitcoin cycle in years. Everything indicates that a significant rise could happen in the coming months, but at the same time, the market is now functioning with the breath of institutions, not small speculators.
If you play it right, this could be your golden opportunity.
Tick tock... tick tock... October is not far.
And this is just an analysis and opinion, not financial advice 👻😊
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