Fed Holds Rates Steady as Crypto Markets Jolt, Then Recover — Is the Bull Market Still Alive?

The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.5% during its July 30 meeting, marking the fifth consecutive pause in policy changes. However, the market response was anything but quiet. Stocks sold off sharply, with the Dow tumbling over 300 points, while Bitcoin and Ethereum both suffered sharp intraday declines before regaining key support.

For the first time since 1993, two Federal Reserve governors—Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller—dissented, voting in favor of a rate cut. Yet despite internal divisions, Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference crushed hopes for a September cut, sending shockwaves across equities and crypto markets.

Rate Cut Odds Tumble as Powell Dashes Market Optimism

Immediately following the Fed's decision and Powell’s hawkish remarks, market expectations for 2025 rate cuts collapsed:

Odds of zero cuts in 2025 surged from nearly zero to 25%

Probability of two rate cuts dropped from 40% to 33%

One-cut scenario rose slightly to 27%, per Kalshi data

Powell made it clear: “We have made no decisions about September,” firmly deferring market hopes for imminent easing. The Fed’s statement cited “somewhat elevated” inflation and “solid” labor market conditions as reasons to maintain current rates.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin briefly fell below $116,000 during the announcement, but rebounded above $118,000 hours later. Ethereum, alongside major altcoins, saw losses of over 2%, coinciding with the expiration of $4.1 billion in BTC and ETH derivatives, which likely amplified volatility.

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