Tonight, we need to pay special attention to a key piece of | Crypto飞哥 on Binance Square

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Tonight, we need to pay special attention to a key piece of data – the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve cares about the most: the PCE data. This time, the market expects it to be 2.7%, higher than last month's 2.3%. If the result matches expectations, it would indicate a consecutive increase for two months, which would be favorable for the dollar, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's strategy of 'tightening a bit more' is correct.
If the data exceeds 2.7%, the dollar is likely to become stronger, as Powell has already indicated that the decision to cut interest rates in September will largely depend on the economic data between now and the next meeting. If this PCE is excessively high, the chances of a rate cut will be virtually eliminated.
Conversely, if the PCE is below 2.7%, the dollar could be at some risk, which would actually be good for speculative assets like ours, meaning the market might be more willing to take on risk in the short term, and asset prices could rebound, as the possibility of a rate cut increases.

Crypto飞哥

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The Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain interest rates in July. After Powell's speech, the market raised the probability of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in September to 51.8%, up from only 33.6% before the speech.

Powell's latest speech had an overall hawkish tone. Although his attitude was restrained, he clearly expressed concerns about the current inflation situation and shifted his focus to the tariff policies of the Trump administration, sending a more cautious signal regarding a potential rate cut in September.

The core content is as follows:

1. Regarding the impact of tariffs, Powell's statement changed from previously believing it was "possibly a one-time impact" to "possibly bringing sustained inflationary pressure," showing greater attention to the long-term effects of trade policy.

2. On whether to cut interest rates in September, he stated that judgments would be made based on all data, including inflation, employment, and economic activity, emphasizing a data-driven approach without giving clear guidance.

3. Although the overall job market is stable, he pointed out that both supply and demand in the labor market are weakening, suggesting potential structural risks in the market.

4. The GDP rebound met expectations, but he specifically mentioned the recent weakness in consumer spending, considering it a notable change.

5. Inflation still shows some stickiness, especially against the backdrop of a slowdown in the service sector. Future attention is needed regarding the further impact of tariffs on prices.

6. On the question of who bears the cost of tariffs, Powell believes consumers will shoulder part of it, implying that the current weakness in consumption may be related to tariff policies.

7. He reiterated that the Federal Reserve, as the central bank, operates independently and that current decisions are not influenced by political factors.

8. Recently, Trump visited the Federal Reserve. Powell welcomed him and mentioned that building repairs would be expedited but did not discuss policy content, showing his maintenance of professional boundaries.

9. He pointed out that the impact of tariffs on inflation cannot be zero; even if the government gains revenue from it, the side effects on the overall economy cannot be ignored.

10. Regarding the issue of a weakening dollar, Powell clearly stated that this falls under the responsibilities of the Treasury Department, aiming to delineate the boundaries of responsibility.

Powell's speech continued the strong stance against inflation and did not send positive signals regarding a rate cut in September. After the speech, market expectations for a rate cut in September significantly decreased from 63.1% before the speech to 47.1%.#美联储利率决议

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