Today's Market Analysis

The price action of $BTC yesterday was indeed quite strange. The Federal Reserve just released hawkish signals, and logically, the market should have taken a hit. However, Bitcoin was briefly pushed down to 115700 but immediately rebounded. The U.S. stock market even reached new highs, which is hard to ignore. Usually, such reactions indicate that the market has either already digested the bad news or that there are funds controlling the market and washing positions, not ruling out the possibility of 'spike and trap'.

From the current market structure, Bitcoin has not deteriorated yet; in fact, one could say the structure is quite intact. After a pullback, it surged again, indicating that there are funds buying in below, and the bulls have not retreated. But this does not mean one should blindly chase long positions, especially under the current uncertain interest rate expectations. A shift in the Federal Reserve's tone could lead to violent market fluctuations, making short-term positions prone to being harvested.

The expectations for interest rate cuts in two months indeed have many variables, and no one can say for sure. The market will continue to engage in back-and-forth battles. Therefore, the current market situation is more about high-level fluctuations, taking one step at a time. One cannot rely solely on technical analysis or news; a comprehensive view is necessary.

As for whether Bitcoin can break new highs, that's a big question mark. Trying to surge directly without significant positive news or apparent acceleration of funds entering the market will likely lead to repeated turmoil.

Yesterday, $ETH momentarily broke below 3700 but recovered quite quickly, indicating that short-term support is still there. However, the divergence issue in the larger cycle on the daily chart has not been resolved; this rebound is mostly emotional recovery rather than a true trend reversal, with 4040 still posing significant resistance.

Altcoins

After this spike in mainstream coins, some currencies have shown clear resilience, such as ENA and CRV°, which are related to stablecoin sectors and seem to have funds backing them. This situation often indicates that these coins may have independent market movements in the future, at least not too negatively in the short term.

Overall, this downward spike serves both to wash positions and to test which sectors and which coins are truly strong. In the future, one can keep an eye on mainstream trends. Each time mainstream coins spike, the reaction from altcoins often becomes a critical moment to filter 'who the real dragons are.' Those who wish to participate can pick from the altcoins that have strongly rebounded after the spike, but one must control their positions well; now is not the time for heavy investments but rather for observation and selective coin picking.