📉 Ethereum Trend Prediction for the Coming Week: Bearish Dominance, Federal Reserve Policy Becomes Key Constraint

⚠️ Core Logic: The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance intensifies market liquidity tightening

1. High Interest Rate Environment Continues to Pressure Risk Assets

The current federal funds rate remains at 3.0%-3.75% (75 basis points higher than previously expected), and US dollar liquidity continues to tighten. Historical data shows that in a high interest rate environment, investors tend to favor safe-haven assets (such as US Treasuries), while the appeal of high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies declines. Recently, Ethereum's 24-hour decline reached 3.92% (currently reported at $2,472), reflecting signs of capital outflow.

2. Inflation Data Suppresses Rate Cut Expectations

The New York Fed predicts that the core PCE inflation rate will reach 3.4% in 2025 (significantly higher than the previous 1.9%), and the risk of "stagflation" (low growth + high inflation) forces the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. Market expectations for a rate cut in September have sharply diminished, weakening ETH's narrative as an "inflation hedge tool."

📊 Technical and On-Chain Signals Strengthen Bearish Trend

• Key Support Levels at Risk: If ETH loses the support of 3600** (recent lower range), it may further test *3500 (June low).

• Net Outflow from Exchanges Slows: Although whale accumulation temporarily boosted confidence, the selling pressure triggered by the Bank of Japan's interest rate increase has yet to be digested, resulting in insufficient market buying momentum.

💎 Operational Suggestions

• Short-term Strategy: Reduce positions on rallies, take partial profits if breaking through 3900, and stop-loss for observation if breaking below **2700.

• Event to Watch: This Friday's US non-farm payroll data; if the unemployment rate rises more than expected, it may trigger a shift in policy expectations, creating a rebound opportunity.

Summary: Federal Reserve policy tightening + technical breakdown risks, ETH is clearly under pressure in the short term. Bulls should wait for macro reversal signals before positioning for a rebound.

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