Hello everyone, I am Hao Ge. Today, I will analyze the rise and fall trends of Bitcoin (BTC) for you. I have integrated information from multiple dimensions, including technical analysis, capital flow, on-chain signals, and the macro environment, making it absolutely comprehensive and professional!

First, let's talk about the bullish support factors. The inflow of institutional funds is quite strong, with the U.S. Bitcoin ETF seeing a net increase of 1,152 BTC in a single day, and BlackRock's holdings remaining stable, which means long-term capital is supporting the market. Additionally, on-chain accumulation has restarted, with long-term holders (those holding for over 155 days) resuming an accumulation mode. Currently, 14.9M BTC is in a dormant state, and selling pressure has clearly weakened. Furthermore, the ongoing risk of global economic stagflation, such as tariff conflicts and persistent inflation, is reinforcing BTC's hedging attributes, leading more people to view it as a safe-haven asset.

From a short-term perspective over the past week, the market is nearing the end of a consolidation phase, and the direction of the next breakout will depend on the gains or losses within the range of 117,000 - 118,700. Personally, I feel slightly inclined towards an upward breakout, given the supportive factors of institutional funds and on-chain accumulation.

In the medium term, over 1 to 3 months, if there is a pullback below $115,000, it could be a good opportunity for long-term investors to position themselves, as the logic of the halving cycle and ETF capital inflow driving a bull market has not changed.

Finally, let me provide today's operation guide: short near 118600 - 118850, first look at 117800, then at 116900. But everyone should remember, investing carries risks, and operations should be cautious. The above suggestions are for reference only; specific decisions should be made based on your own situation! #BTC