$iikPresident Trump recently reiterated his belief that the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates until September, saying publicly:
> “I hear they’re going to do it in September.”
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🏛️ What the Fed Did and Said
On July 30, 2025, the Fed held its benchmark rates at 4.25%–4.50%, despite mounting pressure from Trump to lower them.
In the press briefing, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed’s decision to stay cautious and data-driven, pointing to inflation above the 2% target and uncertainty surrounding the effects of Trump’s tariffs as key concerns.
He was explicit: “There’s quite a lot of data coming in before the next meeting… We have made no decisions about September.”
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⚖️ The Internal Fed Split
A rare two-member dissent from Trump-appointed Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman argued for an immediate quarter-point rate cut, marking the first dual dissent in over 30 years.
Waller said, “We should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate,” signaling concern over slowing growth and labor market softness.
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📉 Market Reactions & Rate Cut Odds
Factor Recent Developments
September Cut Probability Dropped from ~65% pre-Fed meeting to ~45–46% afterward.
Investor Action Treasury yields rose; stock indices edged lower under hawkish sentiment.
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✅ Bottom Line
1. Trump expects a September cut, but this is speculation—not assured.
2. Powell and most Fed officials remain cautious and undecided about a rate cut.
3. Any decision hinges on incoming economic data—particularly inflation and jobs reports before mid-September.