🔥 Catch the rhythm, right now
📈 1. Institutional Funds Dominate Valuation Reconstruction
ETFs are becoming the core engine of price 🚀. A Citi report points out that ETF inflows will account for 41% of BTC price fluctuations in 2025, and every $10 billion increase in weekly inflows will increase the price by an average of 3.6%. Currently, global ETFs hold 1.48 million BTC (7% of the circulating supply), with an expected additional inflow of $15-25 billion this year, directly supporting an institutional target range of $135,000-$199,000. Enterprise-level allocation is also accelerating, with global corporate Bitcoin allocation reaching $86 billion in just H1 2025. Listed companies such as Metaplanet continue to increase their holdings, forming an "institutional super cycle" effect 🔥.
🌐 2. Ecosystem Expansion Strengthens Fundamentals
PayPal's global promotion of BTC payment interfaces connects 400 million users with commercial scenarios for cryptocurrencies, enhancing practical application value 💡; the number of active addresses on the chain has increased by 20%, solidifying the underlying value baseline of $75,000 with network effects.
⚠️ 3. Short-Term Risks and Key Thresholds
- Upside breakout conditions: Need to break through $119,400 (CME futures gap + technical resistance) with volume to open up space for $124,000-$125,000 🚀;
- Downside alert: If support at $116,000 is lost or the Federal Reserve adopts a hawkish rate hike, it may retest $110,000 ⚠️;
- Macro sensitivity is increasing, and U.S. stock market volatility and regulatory dynamics are potential disruptive factors.
💎 Conclusion
Bitcoin is at a critical window of technical triangle convergence and institutional cycle resonance 🎯. If it can effectively break through the $120,000 psychological barrier, coupled with continued ETF fund injections, the annual target of $135,000-$155,000 is promising, but attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility caused by macroeconomic policies in August. #BTC