How long can this bull market last in 2025?
Many people lack financial luck, and the root cause is an inability to grasp the underlying logic of social operations. The current issues of internal competition, deflation, and employment difficulties hinge on the key solution of massive liquidity to push inflation; an artificial bull market is the fastest method. However, due to high interest rates in the U.S., any liquidity we provide risks capital outflow, so we must closely monitor the Federal Reserve and Sino-U.S. relations.
The national team has already taken control of A-shares, and quality assets have been accumulated, just waiting for the right moment to ignite. Do not view the market with the mindset of 2015; this bull market may not be explosive but will be enduring, as the fiscal logic has shifted from land to equity, which is the major direction for the next few decades. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission transferring shares to pensions and SOEs focusing on market value management are all signals.
The debt issue requires substantial funding to resolve; relying on taxes and land sales is unfeasible. In the future, we will promote equity finance, allowing financial assets to appreciate through liquidity, followed by reducing holdings to cash out to resolve debt.
Since 2019, state-owned assets in various places have been quietly acquiring control of quality private enterprises. The current cold stock market is precisely for low-price accumulation. Once acquisitions are completed and equity finance is implemented, the bull market will commence; this will be a significant wealth reshuffling, and those who relied on real estate and power in the previous wave will struggle to keep up.
Technological upgrades require substantial funding and carry high risks, making them unsuitable for bank loans; they must rely on the capital market.
The key to starting a bull market is to resolve the trapped positions. This can be done by either freezing price rises to prevent selling, or by increasing funds to absorb selling pressure, or by a black swan event that allows chips to change hands at low prices. When selling shares does not affect stock prices, the bull market stabilizes.
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