Bitcoin is currently rising in price, despite the continuous decrease in the number of whale wallets, raising concerns that the market is about to peak like in 2021.
The price increase of Bitcoin remains sustainable thanks to capital flows from public companies and ETF funds, although some on-chain forecasts warn of the possibility of short-term adjustments.
MAIN CONTENT
The current Bitcoin price model and the number of whale wallets reflect signs of a reversal of the 2021 growth cycle.
Strong capital flows from public companies and ETFs are helping to maintain price momentum despite negative on-chain data.
Market developments indicate the possibility of short-term adjustments, but the long-term trend depends on the actions of large institutional investors.
Why does the Bitcoin whale wallet model worry analysts?
On-chain data shows that the number of wallets holding 10,000 BTC or more continues to decline, creating a signal similar to the period in 2021 when the market peaked.
"We see a parallel between the decrease in whale wallets and the increase in Bitcoin price, reflecting a repeating trend of previous cycles."
Joao Wedson, Alphractal Analyst, July 2025 report
Specifically, data from Alphractal shows that the number of wallets holding over 10,000 BTC has now dropped below 90, coinciding with previous market peaks of 2020–2021. When prices rise but the number of whales declines, many experts warn of the risk of new buying power weakening and the potential for early reversals.
Analysis from Alphractal predicts that the current price increase cycle of Bitcoin may end in October 2025. In fact, the continuous withdrawal of whale wallets from the market has been a signaling factor for previous adjustment phases, as in the cycle lasting from late 2020 to early 2021. However, in 2025, a new factor has emerged: the sustainability of institutional capital flows has complicated the situation.
Bitcoin continues to rise despite the decreasing number of whales: What is behind this?
Despite the pessimistic forecasts based on whale wallet models, Bitcoin price has remained above the threshold of $117,265 since the peak on July 17, 2025, reflecting strong demand from other sources.
"On-chain data shows that individual investors are withdrawing, but large institutions and new investment products are continuously adding liquidity to the market."
CryptoCompare market report, July 2025
The firmness of Bitcoin's price amid the withdrawal of whale capital not only reflects the shift in investment power but also highlights the role of public companies and ETFs. Large trading volumes, along with the participation of traditional financial institutions, have supported Bitcoin's price despite concerns about withdrawals from large individual investors.
According to TradingView, since mid-July 2025, Bitcoin has continuously maintained its price above $117,265. This is a signal indicating that sustainable demand from institutional investors has become the main driving force helping the market withstand adjustment pressures.
Analyzing the similarities between the 2020–2021 cycle and the current one: Is there anything different?
The price increase model simultaneously with the decrease in whale wallets of Bitcoin is accurately replicating the peak cycle scenario of 2020–2021 - one of the historical reversal signs according to fractal analysis.
"If only relying on historical fractal data, investors will easily fall into the trap of predictions lacking real context about market sentiment and new capital flows."
Larry Cermak, CEO of The Block, commented in June 2025, The Block Research
In the previous cycle, when the number of whale wallets significantly decreased and prices continued to rise, the market soon underwent a major adjustment. However, the difference in 2025 is the presence of new forces such as ETF funds and public company capital flows, helping to increase the market's resistance to negative signals.
Although fractal data indicates a strong possibility of market adjustments in August–October 2025, the aspect of new capital flows - especially from global institutional investors - has changed the landscape. This significantly reduces the risk of deep adjustments, or at least maintains price stability in the short term.
Comparison table of factors affecting the peak Bitcoin cycle 2020–2021 and 2025 Factor 2020–2021 2025 Number of whale wallets Decrease significantly Decrease significantly Bitcoin price Increase sharply to peak, then adjust Increase sharply, not deeply adjusted Institutional capital flow Small, weak
(MicroStrategy started buying) Explosive, strong
(ETF, many billion-dollar companies) ETFs Not yet appearing Assets under management reaching $151.28 billion Deep adjustment probability Very high, due to lack of support Lower, due to support from institutional capital flows
How are public companies buying Bitcoin?
Unlike previous cycles, the buying wave from large listed companies has become a key factor strengthening support for Bitcoin prices.
"MicroStrategy is not afraid to continue accumulating Bitcoin, despite the view that the cycle is nearing its end, because we believe in the long-term value of this asset."
Michael Saylor, President of MicroStrategy, interviewed on Bloomberg, July 15, 2025
MicroStrategy is one of the pioneering enterprises, with a purchase volume of over $2.46 billion in a short period, raising its total portfolio to over $74.18 billion (up 60%). Not only MicroStrategy, but Mara Holding also recently bought $950 million of Bitcoin in just one day, demonstrating growing confidence in the future of this digital asset.
Since the beginning of 2025, 42 public companies hold a total of 4.28% of the global Bitcoin supply, with MicroStrategy controlling 2.894%. This move reinforces market confidence will continue to be anchored by the long-term participation of large enterprises.
Is the influence of public companies on Bitcoin's price increase dynamics really significant?
The presence of large enterprises in the Bitcoin market not only helps boost liquidity but also creates a trust effect, leading to a wave of new investments from other institutional entities.
"The fact that leading companies such as MicroStrategy and Mara Holdings are increasing their Bitcoin holdings has changed the structure of global supply, making them 'the last supply holders.'"
Bitwise Research Report, July 2025
The continuous accumulation of Bitcoin on a large scale by these companies significantly reduces the circulating supply while inspiring many other investment funds and financial institutions to join the fray. This phenomenon directly creates price cushions and attracts retail investors to HODL or buy in fear of missing out (FOMO).
Public companies have now become the dominant players, controlling absolute supply, and somewhat neutralizing the negative impact of individual whale wallet withdrawals.
ETF cash flow continues to maintain an upward trend: What are the highlights?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs maintain a strong net asset inflow rate, acting as a "capital pumping machine" for the market amid a polarized public opinion about short-term prospects.
"With over $151 billion in assets under management, Bitcoin ETFs have become the most effective capital-raising channel in the cryptocurrency industry today."
Caitlin Long, CEO of Custodia Bank, commented on Forbes, July 20, 2025
According to CoinGlass, as of the end of July 2025, Bitcoin ETF funds have total assets under management reaching $151.28 billion - the highest in history. In July alone, the net amount of Bitcoin purchased by ETFs reached $4.83 billion, while the amount sold was only $541.6 million, showing that the balance of cash flow is always tilted towards buying.
The stability of ETF capital flows is a decisive factor helping the Bitcoin market become less sensitive to traditional on-chain fluctuations. If this model is maintained in Q3, according to most institutional investment experts' predictions, any adjustments will be of a temporary "cooling" nature, rather than completely reversing the trend.
Does the buying force from ETFs and public companies actually overshadow the impact of fractal reversals?
Although many on-chain fractal indicators are warning of the risk of creating a peak in the short term, the rise of ETF capital flows, corporate capital, and financial institutions has reduced the strength of traditional reversal signals.
"The growth cycle of Bitcoin today has fundamentally changed due to institutional capital flows, thus the role of fractal analysis and shark signals need to be reassessed."
Anthony Pompliano, cryptocurrency fund manager, noted - Twitter X, July 21, 2025
In previous cycles, when whales reduced participation, the market often plummeted due to a lack of support. However, in the current phase, strong capital flows from ETFs and large listed companies are transforming roles from individual market makers to institutional investors.
This makes the upcoming market developments less dependent on 'whale' psychology and more sensitive to strategic decisions from asset management funds worth hundreds of billions of USD along with global financial policies.
The Bitcoin market scenario at the end of 2025: Peak, deep adjustment, or stability?
Forecasts about Bitcoin's trend at the end of 2025 are strongly divided: Some experts warn of the risk of significant adjustments, while others still believe in solid prospects thanks to backing from institutional forces.
Analysis from the European Crypto Asset Council (2025) suggests that although fractal and on-chain data simultaneously signal a short-term peak in Q3, sustainable capital flows from the institutional sector and the continuous expansion of ETF funds will still keep the market in a new stable state, with potential declines likely to be short-term.
However, individual investors are strongly advised to be cautious in the short term, actively manage risks, and prepare for a high probability of strong volatility adjustments - even though the likelihood of deep declines may be lower than the 2021 cycle due to additional 'support' from large corporations and ETFs.
What factors will determine the future of Bitcoin?
The future of Bitcoin heavily depends on the actions of large institutions, the strength of ETF capital flows, as well as the legal environment and macroeconomic policies.
In the context of institutional money dominating, the actions of some large funds and public companies (especially MicroStrategy, Tesla, US ETFs...) will lead every wave of increase or decrease in the market. Additionally, regulatory changes, moves by central banks, as well as developments in traditional investment markets are increasingly impacting Bitcoin prices.
Therefore, all subjective predictions based on traditional whale models need to incorporate macro factors and changes in the global capital flow landscape to achieve a comprehensive, in-depth, and reliable perspective for long-term investors.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors should you closely monitor to identify the peak cycle of Bitcoin?
Combine on-chain data analysis (whale wallet fluctuations, ETF capital flows) with macro events, rather than solely relying on historical fractal models.
How many public companies are holding Bitcoin and what percentage do their holdings represent?
Currently, there are 42 public companies, collectively holding 4.28% of the global supply, with MicroStrategy accounting for nearly 2.894%.
What is the role of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the market?
ETF funds help attract large capital flows from institutional investors, creating a solid foundation for Bitcoin prices and reducing the risk of deep adjustments when domestic whale capital withdraws.
If the number of whale wallets continues to decline, what will happen to the price of Bitcoin?
The decrease in whale wallets is no longer the only determining factor; prices will also depend on institutional capital flows and buying strength from ETFs.
What are the signs indicating that the market is approaching an adjustment cycle?
When the number of whale wallets decreases significantly, prices stagnate or do not reach new peaks, along with slow ETF capital flows, the risk of adjustment will increase.
What advice is there for individual investors at this time?
It is advisable to diversify the portfolio, increase risk management, and closely observe the actions of large companies and ETF investment funds rather than relying solely on the whale group.
What could change the upward trend of Bitcoin in the second half of 2025?
Changes in macro policies, international management measures, or reversals in ETF capital flows could strongly influence Bitcoin price trends.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-co-the-het-tang-vao-thang-10/
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