📊 Summary of the Fed Meeting: Pause and Caution
🔔 The rate remains unchanged — 4.5%, as expected.
Jerome Powell made a series of statements. The main points:
💵 Economy and Inflation:
▪️ The U.S. economy is resilient but slowing down
▪️ Inflation is still above target — especially in the services sector
▪️ Forecast: PCE will rise by 2.5%, core PCE — 2.7%
▪️ Tariffs are already putting pressure on prices, but the effect is still weak
▪️ New tariffs may increase pressure in the coming months
🏦 Monetary Policy:
▪️ The policy is described as "moderately tight"
▪️ A rate cut in September is unlikely (less than 50%)
▪️ June forecasts are no longer relevant; decisions will be based only on new data
▪️ The neutral rate level has not yet been determined
⚒️ Labor Market:
▪️ Employment is stable, but the growth rate is slowing
▪️ Labor demand and supply are decreasing in parallel
▪️ The main risk is rising unemployment
▪️ The influx of labor has decreased due to immigration policy
🚨 Now regarding the market:
💥 One hour after the announcement, LONG positions worth $208 million were liquidated
