Let's do a preliminary analysis of the possible decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
🏦 Analysis on the Fed before the meeting
💵 Interest Rate
Current Fed rate: 5.25–5.50%.
Expectations of most analysts: the rate will remain unchanged.
Probability of increase/decrease:
Increase: almost 0%.
Decrease: about 10–15%, but unlikely in July.
Most likely: Powell will keep the rate unchanged but will give a "dovish" tone.
📉 How will this affect the markets?
Scenario Impact on the dollar (USD)Impact on crypto (BTC, ETH)
🧠 Key signals to pay attention to
Phrases in the statement:
"Higher for longer" — a "hawkish" signal.
"Data dependent" — a neutral signal
"Room for cuts" — a hint at a possible decrease.
📊 Conclusion
A rate hold is expected, but the key is Powell's tone of comments.
If the rhetoric is dovish → increase in BTC, ETH, NASDAQ.
If he hints that a decrease is not coming soon → the dollar may strengthen, crypto, and stocks may go into correction.
What are your thoughts friends crypto traders, I await in the comments 👇👇
