#FOMCMeeting The Federal Open Market Committee is meeting on July 29–30, 2025, concluding with a policy statement release and a press conference by Chair Jerome Powell
No interest rate change is expected: the federal funds rate is likely to remain at 4.25%–4.50%, where it has stood since December 2024
⚖️ Internal Division & Dissent Risk
The Committee is internally divided: only two governors—Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman—have publicly expressed support for a 25 bps cut at this meeting
A dual dissent by permanent governors has not occurred in over 30 years, making it historically notable if it happens again
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🔍 Economic Projections & Policy Outlook
As of the June 17–18 meeting, the Fed signaled two rate cuts by year-end (each of 25 bps), likely in September and December, bringing the projected year-end rate range to 3.75%–4.00%
Markets currently price about a 60–65% chance of a September cut, with relatively low odds for July
Core PCE inflation was revised upward to ~3.1% for 2025, while GDP growth forecasts were lowered to around 1.4%, reflecting slowing momentum and tariff-related pressures
📉 Market & Strategic Implications
Market expectations for a July cut remain modest, primarily fueled by voices like Waller and Bowman, but the majority forecast no change until fall
Goldman Sachs now anticipates three rate cuts in 2025 (September, October, December), an upgrade from earlier projections
Adriana Kugler, another governor, signaled resistance to near‑term cuts given rising tariff-driven inflation and ongoing concerns about price stability
