Friends, please cherish the current 'calm', as tonight may be a 'sleepless night'
If the US second quarter GDP exceeds expectations and is strong
Federal Reserve's Waller and Bowman directly contradict each other,
If Powell, in a fit of anger, insists on a hawkish tone
Thursday's inflation data rebounds
Friday's employment data remains stable
Then this will greatly undermine the market's expectations for interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025
At this time, I actually hope Waller and Bowman remain calm; if they annoy Mr. Powell, in the few remaining months of his term, he wouldn't mind continuing to maintain high interest rates, and the economic data also supports this direction.
