财经少华
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The next key altcoin season catalyst may appear in September or October.
Recently, Bitcoin's price rose to $123,000, boosting the entire industry and leading to a mini altcoin season in July.
However, as BTC fell below $120,000, the latest crypto wave has lost momentum. Nevertheless, the indicators of altcoin price movement, which surged to 60% on July 1, have now dropped below 50%.
In 2023 and early 2025, this indicator consolidated around 50% for about two months before starting to rise or completely retracing altcoin movements. So, does this require a similar period, and when will the next altcoin rebound be triggered?
Potential Altcoin Season Catalysts
The first potential catalyst is a federal interest rate cut. As of now, there has been no change in market expectations from the July 30 meeting.
However, there is a 63.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, indicating a shift in expectations that may affect cryptocurrencies and broader risk assets.
If the Federal Reserve significantly lowers interest rates in September, it could create a new risk environment. Moreover, the recent BTC price breaking through the $120,000 mark was driven by the stablecoin legislation, the "GENIUS Act." If this trend repeats, the passage of the broader comprehensive market structure legislation, the "CLARITY Act," could also inject vitality into the market.
Another key catalyst could be the approval of altcoin ETFs, which may happen in October.
Additionally, the dominance of BTC and USDT has receded, indicating that altcoins are slightly recovering and there is stablecoin liquidity available to drive a rebound.
This could happen in September or October, due to the Fed's interest rate cuts, the passage of the "CLARITY Act," or the approval of altcoin ETFs.
#BTC
Recently, Bitcoin's price rose to $123,000, boosting the entire industry and leading to a mini altcoin season in July.
However, as BTC fell below $120,000, the latest crypto wave has lost momentum. Nevertheless, the indicators of altcoin price movement, which surged to 60% on July 1, have now dropped below 50%.
In 2023 and early 2025, this indicator consolidated around 50% for about two months before starting to rise or completely retracing altcoin movements. So, does this require a similar period, and when will the next altcoin rebound be triggered?
Potential Altcoin Season Catalysts
The first potential catalyst is a federal interest rate cut. As of now, there has been no change in market expectations from the July 30 meeting.
However, there is a 63.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, indicating a shift in expectations that may affect cryptocurrencies and broader risk assets.
If the Federal Reserve significantly lowers interest rates in September, it could create a new risk environment. Moreover, the recent BTC price breaking through the $120,000 mark was driven by the stablecoin legislation, the "GENIUS Act." If this trend repeats, the passage of the broader comprehensive market structure legislation, the "CLARITY Act," could also inject vitality into the market.
Another key catalyst could be the approval of altcoin ETFs, which may happen in October.
Additionally, the dominance of BTC and USDT has receded, indicating that altcoins are slightly recovering and there is stablecoin liquidity available to drive a rebound.
This could happen in September or October, due to the Fed's interest rate cuts, the passage of the "CLARITY Act," or the approval of altcoin ETFs.
#BTC
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