July is coming to an end, and as the monthly line closes, the market has clearly entered a critical point of 'choosing a direction.' As I mentioned before: the September bull market may be nearing its end, and August is the last time window for the big players to create the illusion of prosperity.
From now on, the market will create an illusion that a 'full bull market has arrived,' especially as mainstream coins and some altcoins rally and set the pace. But you and I both know that this is the easiest time to get washed out and miss the last opportunity to board.
Bitcoin, Ethereum: Opportunities and Games Under Fluctuations
#BTC : Yesterday it rebounded to around 119.3, which basically met expectations, and there was a second sell signal on the hourly chart. If it can't stay above 119.3 in the short term, it is likely to pull back to 115. The range of 116-118 is the most active for the short term, and historical data shows it is quite positive here.
In the long term, Bitcoin's big holders are experiencing a new round of 'profit realization' and turnover, but this time the market has shown tremendous resilience—it has not collapsed as in the past.
The key signal is: Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's long-term holders have made profits of up to $2.5 billion, far exceeding historical levels. Yet the price remains stable, indicating that the market is undergoing a structural transformation; short-term volatility is decreasing, but the mid-term logic remains strong.
#ETH : ETH's performance is close to expectations. Today, we need to see if ETH can break through 3820-3880; if not, there is a risk of a pullback to 3600-3660.
I have always emphasized: ETH is the truly high-quality asset that can cross cycles. Many people hold old coins like $DOGE , #ADA, $UNI and fantasize that one day they will outperform ETH. This mindset can be fatal in the second half of a bull market.
If you missed BTC in the past year, then holding ETH now is like standing at the starting line of BTC a year ago.
Is a big market brewing at the end of the month?
Tonight we will welcome the ADP employment data and the core GDP data for the second quarter, with the focus on tomorrow morning's FOMC interest rate meeting.
The market currently believes there is a 63% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, but this is not important. What truly affects the market is every word Powell says at the press conference.
His wording will directly affect the upcoming market trends—sentiment is the biggest driver.
This round of Bitcoin's performance is not simple.
Bitcoin's volatility is entering historical lows, with the actual three-month volatility at only 70%, far below the 143% level of the 2021 bull market. What does this mean?
Low volatility = a period of building momentum for a big market.
From the long-term holding data, the short-term cost line is concentrated in the range of 115,700-118,000. As long as there is no panic selling, this is the 'safety cushion.' Moreover, the long-term sell-offs are quickly taken over by giant institutions like Wesley, making the market structure healthier.
Summary: July is closing, and August is for rallying; false prosperity is coming, don't get washed out.
If you are still hesitating, either get on board, or wait until the train has left before regretting it.
That's it for the article! If you are confused in the crypto world, consider strategizing and harvesting with me!
