The A-shares continue to show a breakthrough trend today, even refreshing the high point of this round of movements, but still remain calm:
The contrast between the rise of A-shares and the decline of overnight U.S. stocks is striking, with the two markets showing different trends after the third round of China-U.S. talks concluded. Unlike the previous two talks, the results of the third talk are expected to be revealed later. Overall, the market reaction has been very 'restrained,' like an audience that has already guessed the plot.
What the market is currently most concerned about is: the Federal Reserve, non-farm data, and the earnings reports of tech giants. Such a situation where 'major events converge in one week' is rare.
First, the Federal Reserve is about to announce its interest rate decision. While everyone knows the Fed may keep rates unchanged, if it fails to provide clear guidance on the expected future rate cuts, the dollar may continue to strengthen, leading to declines in other markets. Will the statement after the meeting change its stance on 'tax increases potentially causing inflation'? Has it left clearer room for interest rate cuts this year? These are key points of focus. If the Fed remains 'deaf and mute' under the pressure of tariffs, the market may think that the Fed will only act when something really goes wrong, which would be negative for the stock market. However, if the tone is slightly softer, it might boost tech stocks for one last push.
Second, on Friday, there will also be the U.S. non-farm employment report, which is another major highlight. The market expects an increase of 102,000 jobs, far lower than June's 147,000. This is one of the data points most closely watched by the current Federal Reserve: weak data → supports rate cuts → cheers from the stock market; strong data → rate cuts delayed → becomes the fuse for 'good news turning into bad news.' Now the market hopes the economy 'is not too bad' while also hoping it is 'bad enough to force the Fed to act.' In other words, it would be best if it is 'just right.'
Third, at the same time, four tech giants (possibly Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft) will intensively announce their earnings reports within these two days, which will undoubtedly influence the overall trend of the U.S. stock market.
This week is not an ordinary week, but rather a 'Market Faith Testing Week.' People are betting that: tariffs will be delayed; Powell will hold firm; the seven giants won't stumble; non-farm data will be just right; global central banks will remain still; everything has to be just right for the market not to fall.
