✅ Unlikely: No Rate Cut Expected Today
🔹 Key Reasons:
• Market Consensus: The CME FedWatch Tool shows a ~97% chance that rates will remain unchanged (4.25%–4.50%) at today’s meeting.
• Majority View at the Fed: Most officials—including Chair Powell—have signaled a preference to hold steady and wait for more data before considering rate cuts.
• Inflation Concerns: Core inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target (~2.9% in June), prompting caution over premature easing.
🔹 Internal Divisions:
• At least two Fed governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, are expected to dissent—supporting a 25-bps cut due to softening labor market signs. Ministers will remain in the minority.
• Despite pressure from President Trump—who has publicly urged Powell to cut rates—the Fed has emphasized its independence and continued reliance on economic data.
🔹 Economic Outlook:
• Markets are now looking toward a possible rate cut in September, not today. The Fed has projected a median of two rate cuts later this year, contingent on upcoming inflation and labor market reports. 
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📌 Prediction Summary
• Will Powell cut rates today? → Very unlikely.
• Decision expected: Hold rates at 4.25%–4.50%, with potential dissents from two governors.
• Next probable cut window: Around September 2025, if inflation cools and employment data softens.
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🧭 What to Listen for at Powell’s Press Conference:
• Clarification on September rate cut projections and the extent to which upcoming data (inflation, jobs, GDP) will shape decisions.
• What signals the Fed may send about future rate easing timing—even if today’s decision is to hold steady.