The long-standing legal battle between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs is approaching a potential turning point. As the crypto market watches closely, legal experts and market analysts suggest that the SEC may soon withdraw its appeal a move that could mark a major victory for Ripple and bring greater clarity to the regulatory status of XRP.
✅ What’s Happening?
The SEC filed an appeal in the XRP case following a partial loss in 2023. However, the agency may now be preparing to back down. The turning point? An upcoming August 15, 2025 deadline, when both parties are scheduled to file a joint status update with the court.
🧠 Legal Expert Insight
Marc Fagel, a former SEC attorney, believes the appeal withdrawal is all but confirmed.
“It’s a done deal internally formal withdrawal is just a matter of time.”
Marc Fagel, via Coinpedia
Fagel estimates a ~100% probability that the SEC has already completed its internal review process and will formally announce the withdrawal soon. His experience within the agency lends weight to this bold claim.
📊 Market Analysts' Perspective
Crypto legal analysts are also optimistic. They estimate a 70–90% chance of the SEC withdrawing its appeal before the August 15 deadline. Their view is based on:
Ripple’s move to drop its own appeal
The tone of recent filings
Mutual signals from both parties indicating a willingness to settle
These estimates suggest that a conclusion to the case is more than likely.
🔍 Summary Table
Source Estimated Probability Key Insight
Marc Fagel (Ex-SEC) ~100% Believes internal approvals are finalized
Market Analysts 70–90% Based on Ripple’s actions and legal filings
📌 Why It Matters
If the SEC formally withdraws its appeal, it would mark a major win for Ripple and a huge step forward for XRP in achieving regulatory clarity. This could:
Boost investor confidence
Set a precedent for future crypto cases
Trigger bullish momentum for XRP and other altcoins
🚀 Conclusion
As of now, the probability that the SEC will withdraw its appeal in the Ripple case is extremely high between 90% and 100%, according to legal experts and market analysts. With the August 15 court date approaching, all eyes are on what could be the final chapter of thi$s pivotal legal saga.
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