$BTC $ETH

Let's take a look at the macro market this week on Monday.

The first is tariffs; the US and Europe have settled, and the US and Japan have also shaken hands. The next focus will be on how Tokyo University, Japan, Canada, and Mexico will negotiate.

Then there's the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday. Will Powell actually back down? He has already been pressured by Congress twice; will he say something nice this time to soothe the market?

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is also joining in the fun. With the US-Japan agreement in place, the interest rate path may need some minor adjustments, after all, it can't just follow the dollar all the time.

Finally, there's Friday's non-farm payroll report. With the private sector job market being so weak and the market not completely giving up on inflation, how can it not be led around by the nose by the Fed?

Back to the market, last Friday's sudden attack on Bitcoin was actually a false breakdown. There were rumors of 80,000 Bitcoins being transferred, which smashed through the consolidation range. This is a typical false breakdown washout; it's not a crash but a trap for shorts.

The upper resistance is around 121K, which is where market liquidity accumulates. Without a doubt, Bitcoin's rebound target is likely headed there; market funds will sniff out this trend itself.

As for the support at 112K, it hasn't been tested before, and it's still somewhat reliable now, but if it really drops and then touches it, that would basically signal a failure for the bulls, not just a trap for shorts but a trend reversal.

Ethereum almost touched 4K today, and after a slight pullback during the day, it's starting to stir again. Now 3800 has become new support; whether it can stabilize depends on whether this surge is strong.

To really make things happen, it needs to break through the 4112-4150 resistance zone. If it pulls back and stays above 3888, it will likely be ready to attack the next targets of 4500 or even 4880.

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