After many years of struggling in the crypto space, Xiao Xu has accumulated many profound experiences and lessons. The following core insights are gained through real money and sleepless nights, applicable to most participants.
1. Cycle is a hard rule; living is more important than getting rich quickly.
Bull and bear cycles follow a four-year pattern, with 90% of projects going to zero in a bear market, and the bull market can be crazier than imagined—only by living long enough can you wait for your own dividends.
Position management is a life-saving talisman: always keep enough cash for two years of living expenses, never go all in. How many people have fallen into the cycle of 'adding positions when in profit, losing everything in one go'—the lessons learned are hard to forget.
2. In the information war, most 'wealth codes' are scams.
Don’t believe in any 'insider information', 'community calls', or 'KOL promotions'; most are traps to lure you in. Real opportunities are often hidden in the dark, just like the early Uniswap airdrops or when Bitcoin was just starting out.
Analyzing on-chain data is more reliable than scrolling social media: check whale wallet movements (for example, using Nansen), contract holdings, gas fee changes—these are closer to the truth than the words of Twitter's big accounts.
3. Human nature is the biggest pitfall; you must learn to challenge yourself.
FOMO (fear of missing out) is the most harmful: during bull runs, one always thinks 'this time is different,' blindly chasing highs; during crashes, one panics and sells at the bottom price. Ultimately, it's all about being driven by emotions.
Practice reverse thinking: when the market is in extreme panic (like after the LUNA collapse or FTX explosion), there often hides a golden opportunity, but don’t rush in blindly; building positions in batches is more prudent.
4. Lack of awareness, making money all depends on luck
Don’t touch unfamiliar areas: DeFi, NFT, new public chains, if you can't clearly explain 'how smart contracts liquidate collateral' or 'how L2 compresses data,' then don’t invest large sums. After all, you can never earn money beyond your understanding.
Meme coins are just gambling: only use entertainment funds for meme coins and assume they will go to zero, especially beware of 'scientists' using bots to front-run.
5. Safety is number 1, returns are all zeros after that.
Don’t concentrate assets: only keep trading money on exchanges, store large amounts in cold wallets (like Ledger, Trezor), and make sure to physically back up your seed phrases, don’t store them on your phone.
Anti-phishing is a must: don’t click unknown links, don’t authorize unlimited token limits, test new wallets with small amounts first—hackers know how to exploit human nature better than you.
How to allocate positions?
50% Bitcoin / Ethereum (the cornerstone of resilience)
30% mainstream sectors (such as Layer 2, AI, Depin, etc.)
20% high-risk exploration (airdrops, early projects)
What to do in a bear market?
Dollar-cost average Bitcoin (buy with closed eyes below $20,000)
Engage in interactions for airdrops (such as Starknet, zkSync ecosystem)
Learn on-chain tools (Dune analytics, basic contract auditing)
Absolutely cannot touch:
Centralized financial products promising high returns (like Celsius's example right in front of us)
Contract leverage exceeding 5 times (one spike could lead to zero)
Superstitions about 'national-level projects' or 'Buffett endorsing'
The biggest paradox in the crypto world is that most people chase the 'hundredfold myth,' but what truly changes destiny is often the tedious strategy of 'dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin in a bear market + partial profit-taking in a bull market.'
Getting rich quickly is a matter of luck for a few, while fighting a protracted war is the right path for ordinary people. Time will eliminate speculation, leaving those who understand cycles, fear risks, and are willing to learn. Stay alert to go far.
Finally, thank you for watching, click on the avatar to follow Xiao Xu! I hope to use the experiences and lessons I’ve accumulated over many years in the crypto space to help you avoid detours and double your assets!
