This week, the Federal Reserve has not yet held a meeting, but the market is already buzzing. The upheaval in the Trump administration, ongoing trade tariff clouds, and the concentrated release of U.S. second-quarter GDP, July non-farm, and core inflation data create a 'data nuclear explosion' effect. Against this backdrop, whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates remains a suspense, and whether the crypto market can ride the wave is in question.
Next week's U.S. economic data will be a key turning point for policy.
GDP growth is expected to rebound to 2.4%, but it mainly relies on the reduction of trade deficits; doubts remain regarding domestic demand and the manufacturing recovery;
July non-farm employment growth may slow, and the unemployment rate might rise slightly. A cooling job market could provide grounds for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates; June's core PCE inflation is expected to accelerate, and the transmission of tariff costs presents a dilemma for the rate cut plan.
The mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged next week, but once the data is released, the market narrative may change. If GDP is strong, employment is solid, and inflation falls, the Federal Reserve may keep rates steady;
If GDP is weak, employment is sluggish, and inflation is high, expectations for rate cuts will heat up, and Bitcoin is likely to challenge historical highs; if the data is contradictory, market volatility will significantly increase.
Crypto assets are highly sensitive to policy adjustments. Once rate cut expectations are fulfilled, the crypto market may welcome three major benefits:
Rate cuts encourage funds to chase high-yield assets, and Bitcoin ETFs pave the way for institutional investment, with capital inflows driving up coin prices;
The weakening dollar highlights Bitcoin's status as 'digital gold';
Market sentiment is activated, pushing Bitcoin to challenge $100,000.
However, investors still need to be wary of potential risks. If U.S. economic data is strong, the Federal Reserve may adopt a hawkish stance, leading to a short-term correction in the crypto market; the change in leadership of the Trump administration brings policy uncertainty, increasing market volatility; ongoing global regulatory pressures may trigger sell-offs due to negative news.
Next week's economic data and policy decisions may become a significant watershed for the crypto market this year. Will it soar with momentum or undergo brief adjustments? The volatility in the crypto space is intensifying, and investors need to remain cautious. However, this 'data nuclear explosion' and decision will undoubtedly be recorded in crypto history. Follow Xiao Ma to grasp the first-hand market dynamics!#ETH重返3800 #巨鲸动向
