📌 The harsh reality of the trading market
1. What you think is 'positive news' may have already been priced in by the market.
- Current price (3825) ≠ starting point, but rather the market's early bet on the results post-ETF approval.
- Historical script: 'Buy the expectation, sell the fact'—once the ETF is approved, be careful of a collective exit by bulls.
2. Leverage is not a weapon, but a suicide button.
- This is not a one-sided market, but a long-short meat grinder.
- High leverage = Actively applying for liquidation, a slight market shake can wipe out your account.
3. There is no 'perfect trade', only 'probability games'.
- Professional traders rely on **small losses to test and wait patiently for big opportunities**.
- Retail investor mindset: Always trying to catch every fluctuation, resulting in repeated market harvesting.
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📈 Long strategy (high-risk speculation)
Logic: Betting on the final sprint before ETF approval.
Discipline:
✅ Stop loss must be strict! → If it falls below 3750 (like 3730), cut losses immediately.
✅ Position ≤ 5% → This is not a 'guaranteed profit' market, don't go all-in.
✅ Quick in and out! → Take profit in batches near 3850, don't wait for 'positive news to turn negative'.
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📉 Short selling strategy (high-risk counter trend)
Logic: Betting on ETF expectations failing or a technical pullback.
Discipline:
✅ Entry signal: A **long upper shadow + low volume** appears at 3817-3850 (bullish weakness).
✅ Stop loss must be set! → If it breaks 3870, take the loss, don't hold the position.
✅ Target: 3750-3700 → Quick exit on short-term trades, don't linger.
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🔄 Dynamically adjust strategy
- If it breaks 3850 and holds → Wait for a pullback to go long (trend confirmation).
- If it falls below 3750 → A pullback may be a chance to short (trend weakening).
💡 Remember:
- Data is just a reference; market sentiment is key.
- Your trading system is the ultimate moat.
- Don't let FOMO (fear of missing out) control you, patiently wait for opportunities.
