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Jason 1688
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9月的降息，基本上已经是90%概率。区别在于是降息25个基点还是50个，目前高盛已经在吹风降息50个基点的选项。今年美联储的动作其实跟去年有点像，7月该降息的时候硬挺着不降，结果就业数据连续不及预期，9月大降50个基点。 今年同样如此，7月应该降息的时候，鲍威尔没有降，9月估计要搞“追加式”降息。当然现在回头来看，7月鲍威尔硬拖着不降息的原因，是掩护华尔街和犹太资本，顺利从美股撤退。7月降息的话，他们还没撤退完。现在基本差不多了，所以9月可以痛快降息了。
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