After hitting a new all-time high of over $123,000 in mid-July, Bitcoin has faced increased volatility in the second half of the month. A sharp drop to around $115,000 on July 25 has left investors wondering: is the rally over, or just pausing?
$115,000 — A Critical Support Level?
On-chain analysis using the URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) indicator offers key insights. This metric tracks how much Bitcoin was last moved at different price levels — highlighting major support and resistance zones based on investor behavior.
URPD Signals: Thin Resistance Above, Strong Support Below
Current URPD data shows that between $110,000 and $115,000, relatively few coins have recently changed hands — an area known as an "empty zone," where trading activity is low and liquidity gaps may exist.
In contrast, the $90,000 to $110,000 range is packed with historical buying — particularly from long-term holders and institutional "smart money." This makes it a significant zone of strong support.
Therefore, while $110,000–$115,000 may serve as a softer buffer, the real fortress lies just below.
Sideways Action: Calm Before the Storm?
Since reaching its recent peak, BTC has been trading sideways, staying above the $115,000 mark despite pressure from profit-takers. This stability suggests growing investor confidence.
If Bitcoin continues to hold this level, a new wave of demand could kick off another leg upward in August. But if it breaks below $110,000, we may see a drop toward $100,000 or even $95,000 — the deeper accumulation zone.
Final Thoughts: Smart Money is Watching
Smart money has already positioned itself in the $90,000–$110,000 zone. If the price moves near this level again, expect strong buying interest to return. Whether BTC holds or breaks the $115,000 zone will likely shape its next medium-term trend.
👉 Investor Insight: This current dip could be a strategic buying opportunity — assuming $115,000 holds. Both on-chain data and sentiment point toward cautious optimism.