Bitcoin derivatives data questions the strength of BTC’s $115K support
Bitcoin traders turn cautious as BTC trades near a critical support level, but outright panic is absent in derivatives markets.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin options and futures data suggest traders are neutral despite a 7% drop from the peak.
Stablecoin demand in China remains steady, showing marginal fear in crypto markets.
Bitcoin
$117,576
dropped 4% between Thursday and Friday, falling below $115,000 for the first time in two weeks. The correction coincided with the monthly derivatives expiry, which wiped out $390 million worth of futures contracts, equivalent to 14% of open interest.
To determine if this event altered traders’ longer-term expectations, it’s important to examine Bitcoin futures and options indicators.
Bitcoin 2-month futures premium relative to spot markets. Source: Laevitas.ch
Under normal conditions, monthly Bitcoin futures trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium over spot markets to compensate for the longer settlement period. The current 7% premium falls within that neutral range and is close to Monday’s 8% level. At first glance, the data suggests no shift in investor sentiment, despite Bitcoin’s $4,700 price drop.
Bitcoin reached a record high of $123,181 on July 14, but the last time futures data signaled bullish momentum was in early February. That timing aligns with the United States imposing import tariffs and the disappointment over the US Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, despite January’s relatively calm Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading of 3% year-over-year.
