The market for $ETH has become quite interesting recently—positive news is piling up like a snowball, while on the technical side, frequent 'retreat signals' are being released, creating a dizzying tug-of-war.
The core contradiction is clear: on one side is the continuous fermentation of positive expectations, and on the other side is the adjustment pressure from the short-term technicals. The current key battleground is stuck at the $3700 mark. This position is not just an ordinary support level, but a 'minefield' where long positions are clustered—once it breaks, a chain reaction of liquidations could directly smash the price down to $3600; conversely, $3800 is like a wall built by short positions, making it quite difficult to break through.
Want to break the deadlock? You need to watch two hard indicators: first, trading volume must break through the 5 billion level, and second, the RSI indicator must steadily return above 50. Only when these two signals appear simultaneously can it be considered a pass for the bulls to charge. By then, the liquidation price of the short positions piled up above $4000 is likely to become the main target for the bulls, as turning the stop-loss points of opponents into profit points for oneself has always been a common practice in the market.
The current market is essentially a struggle between 'upgraded positives' and 'technical adjustments'. Regarding the upcoming trend, my judgment is: if $3700 can hold this week, coupled with the catalyst of the Pectra upgrade, the probability of hitting $4000 in August will significantly increase; conversely, if it cannot hold, a second dip to $3600 may be difficult to avoid.
In terms of operations, spot trading can consider gradually positioning around $3700, while contracts are recommended to try small long positions below $3750, while closely monitoring the key nodes before the Pectra upgrade, with targets like Lido and Rocket Pool deserving special attention. Additionally, several risk points need to be wary during the day: changes in the SEC's attitude towards ETFs, whether the upgrade will be delayed, and whether geopolitical conflicts will escalate, as these could trigger short-term volatility.
Overall, now is not a time for panic, but a key stage to see clearly the battlefield situation and find the right entry timing. The positives are still there, but it requires a bit of patience to wait for the technicals to catch up.
