Bitcoin (BTC):
Today, the morning session plummeted by 5,000 points, with a volatility exceeding that of the US stock market. It is currently about to test the EMA30 position at the daily level. The closing price of yesterday's K-line did not break the midpoint of the bullish bar, leaving the possibility of collecting a strong support. The 4-hour level indeed recorded a volume-increasing bearish bar and broke the previous neckline, but if the US stock market opens and tests with a bearish bar and then closes a bullish bar, this crisis signal can be resolved. At the daily level, a long lower shadow pin will be formed just touching EMA30, creating strong support.
Ethereum (ETH):
After touching 3772 last night, it plummeted more than 100 points, currently showing a V-reversal state. Funds are flowing back to Ethereum, with a stronger degree than Bitcoin. Ethereum has limited downside but rises more fiercely than Bitcoin, showing independent strong characteristics. The technical aspect and expected judgment have deviated, with actual performance being stronger than expected.
Previous review:
Review of yesterday's operations performed poorly:
Short at the main position of 3737: Member channel stop loss 20 points
Short-term short position: Stop loss 10 points
Total loss: Last night a total of 30 points stop loss
Technical analysis deviation: Originally looked at a bearish shark shape, but the actual market moved in a bearish crab shape. Although some members reminded that it might move in a crab shape, after analysis it was deemed unnecessary to consider, resulting in precise loss.
Major level judgment errors: Originally expected Bitcoin to diverge and rise, but Ethereum quickly fell after obtaining short liquidity, but the market trend was completely opposite. Ethereum is particularly strong, while Bitcoin is particularly weak.
BTC support levels: 114,200 (daily EMA30 + 50% upward retracement position + previous 382 precise validation), 111,900 (secondary support after wave-shaped upward break), 112,400 (bullish crab shape, distance to target 500 points can be operated in batches)$BTC
ETH resistance level: 3817 (the last key point, breaking will completely overturn the view of gaining short liquidity and falling)
ETH support level: 3430 (conservative long position, re-enter after breaking, liquidity acquisition is somewhat odd), 3522 (aggressive long position, 0.886 position, stop loss at 3505 only 20 points)$ETH
Market analysis:
Bitcoin's morning volatility exceeded that of the US stock market, indicating a change in market structure. The downward trend has not yet been confirmed; there may still be an upward opportunity if today's close holds. The key lies in whether it can gain strong support at the EMA30 position and form a long lower shadow pin.
Ethereum shows the characteristic of following down but not up, with clear fund inflow. Currently in a strong state, contrary to the previous expectation of gaining short liquidity and then falling.
Main operational strategy:
Bitcoin EMA30 collection strategy:
Core Logic: Quickly collect a strong support after testing EMA30
Operational suggestion: Reduce position size, the uncertainty is quite large
Risk control: If the daily closing breaks below the neckline position, consider shorting later
Long on Bitcoin at the support level:
Preferred position: 114,200 (EMA30 + 50% retracement overlap)
Secondary selection position: 111,900 (wave-shaped upward support)
Shape position: 112,400 (bullish crab, partial orders or stop loss control)
Ethereum MACD golden cross strategy:
Entry position: 3522 (0.886 position)
Stop loss: 3505 (20 points stop loss)
Logic: 4-hour MACD shrinking followed by golden cross state + hour level bottoming
Risk: No shape support, mainly relying on technical indicators
Bitcoin neck short (during live broadcast):
Condition: Daily closing breaks below the neckline position
Operation: Coordinate with shape operations during the live broadcast
Currently, it is not recommended to short independently
Important risk control:
Position management: Strongly recommend halving position operations, recent judgment errors are numerous
Strict stop loss: All operations must have stop losses set, no holding positions
Lack of confidence: Acknowledge recent poor grasp of the market, reduce operational frequency
Logic verification: Wait for the 3817 breakthrough to confirm whether the judgment is completely wrong
Important technical tips:
Bitcoin's morning volatility exceeded that of the US stock market, and the market structure change requires adaptation.
Ethereum's strength exceeded expectations, with clear fund inflow
The previous 50% retracement position validation (382 position) is very precise, enhancing the credibility of 114,200
Acknowledge that technical analysis has systemic deviations and needs recalibration
Short suggestion:
Currently, it is not recommended to actively short Bitcoin, wait for the daily closing to break the neckline before considering. Regarding Ethereum, if it breaks 3817, it will completely abandon the short strategy and switch to a small-level pullback followed by a long strategy.
Summary:
Bitcoin focuses on the strong support level of 114,200, looking forward to the success of the EMA30 collection strategy. Ethereum can take small positions to gamble on the MACD golden cross opportunity at 3522. Overall strategy: Reduce positions, strictly stop losses, acknowledge recent judgment errors, and wait for the market to give clearer signals before resuming normal operational rhythm. If 3817 is broken, it will completely change the view on Ethereum. Core idea of Ethereum operation: Do not chase up temporarily, wait for confirmation of the 3817 breakthrough before adjusting strategies, currently small positions are used to gamble on technical indicator recovery opportunities.
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