There is a potential $2b+ inflow into Bitcoin next week:
- Saylor's average ATM has been ~$600m per week
- Additionally, raising $500m via STRC (likely topped up)
- Mara does an $850m raise, upsized to $950m.
So we potentially have ~$2b+ from TCOs' alone, with the possibility of second-order effects that materialize via renewed ETF interest.
The best reference for this is July 10 - 11.
ETFs bought ~$2b and Bitcoin rallied ~10% over the next days.
The rally came to a halt when an ancient bitcoin whale started transferring ~$9b Bitcoin to the Galaxy OTC desk on Monday.
The price action was muted ever since as the coins exchanged hands.
There is a decent chance that most, if not all, of the coins are now absorbed by the market.
I give it a high likelihood that this sell-pressure is fully absorbed and that Bitcoin is able to breakout with next week's inflows.