July 24, 2025
Yesterday, the market had a little trick—Ethereum briefly touched around 3500 USD, and Bitcoin nearly reached the 117000 mark, with several mainstream assets pulling back between 5%-10%. The contract market was even livelier, with over 500 million USD evaporating instantly, of which 380 million came from long positions. This operation is clear to the discerning eye: it was merely to wash out the overly enthusiastic long positions, making way for further upward momentum.
Experienced players know that sharp declines in a bull market often hide mysteries. The liquidation volume of contracts is a good observation window—based on my practical experience, past bull market peak warnings usually occur when the daily liquidation volume exceeds 1.5 billion USD (about 10 billion RMB). However, the crypto market has grown, so I adjust this warning line up to 1.5-2 billion USD.
Of course, it doesn't mean that once it hits 1.5 billion, it will immediately turn downward; sometimes it may lead to a stronger rebound. However, if 10 billion level liquidations occur consecutively 2-3 times, that would be a cause for concern—past bull market peaks were basically hidden after these events. Looking at yesterday's 500 million liquidation volume, it was less than one-third of the warning line, which is clearly a normal 'bath' in the early bull market, cleaning up floating funds, and the market will soon regain its upward momentum.
Nowadays, when people say the market is in a bull market, probably over 90% of investors would agree wholeheartedly. But the key in a bull market is not chasing prices but escaping the peak—this needs to be thought out in advance. In the upcoming articles, I will intersperse some escape peak techniques and indicators for you to pay attention to.
A few days ago, I mentioned the Bitcoin market cap ratio (BTC.D), and many people asked about it. To put it simply: you can search for BTC.D on TradingView to see the chart, or visit the Coinglass homepage and click on 'Bitcoin Total Market Cap Ratio' at the top to find it quickly. How to use it specifically?
Lastly, I want to say that most coins will reach a new level in a bull market, but how high they can jump depends not only on the market trend and liquidity but also on whether the main players are willing to lift them—so it's really hard to guess the price of a single coin. However, the principle is simple: as long as you can grasp the market pulse, especially if you can accurately judge Ethereum with an 80% accuracy, you'll have a good idea for trading altcoins: in the early bull market, it's fine to hold more altcoins; when it's time to escape the peak, whether mainstream or altcoin, it should all be cleared out.
Thank you all for your attention and likes, let's continue to walk steadily in the bull market!
