In the past two weeks, Bitcoin's open interest has surged by $6 billion, and the annualized funding rate has skyrocketed to 19%, indicating a large presence of aggressive leveraged long positions in the market. Meanwhile, the trading activity of retail investors in South Korea has significantly increased, with cryptocurrency trading volume jumping from $1 billion to $6 billion, reflecting the dominant role of retail capital in this market cycle. However, as prices enter a consolidation phase, these high-leverage long positions may face the risk of forced liquidation, especially after next week's FOMC meeting, as the market will enter a relatively quiet trading period in August. Although there may be volatility pressure in the short term, several key positive factors are building up for after the summer, and the overall upward trend in the crypto market has not yet ended.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has relatively maintained a high-level oscillation. Although it rebounded from the bottom of the high-level range two days ago, the market has not stabilized and has continued to decline. Today, it is about to break below the strong support level of the daily MA5 and MA10 moving averages, generating a bearish signal. Currently, the daily MACD has formed a death cross, opening downwards with increasing bearish volume, and the KDJ three lines are converging to form a death cross that is continuously diverging. It is expected that a pullback will still occur in the future, so caution is advised. However, the overall direction remains unchanged, with a medium to long-term outlook still favoring bulls. Support is around 116,000, and resistance is around 120,000. #BTCvsETH