'If you want to rewrite your fate, why not try the crypto world? If it's hard to succeed here, ordinary people probably won't have another chance for a comeback.' This sentiment has been deeply ingrained in my heart since I entered the market at 30,000. Ten years later, my assets have grown from 30,000 to tens of millions, and now to a 'small target'. I increasingly believe that the crypto world is not a casino but an opportunity window for ordinary people; the key is finding the right method.

Recently, I had tea with a big shot in the crypto world, and his experience was shocking: he once lost 30 million due to liquidation in three days, but now he can make stable profits. He said, 'The secret to making money in crypto is not to be smart, but to be restrained.' This resonated with me — looking back at my own journey, from the ecstasy of going from 30,000 to tens of millions, to the despair of falling back to square one, and now to the calm of having 'a small target', it hinges on the 'dumb method' of 'only trading one pattern and never entering without a pattern.'

I. From liquidation to a target of tens of millions: focus on one pattern and stick with it

Many people are obsessed with technical indicators, storing dozens of 'high win rate strategies' on their phones, but end up confused in practice. I made the same mistake early on, learning all the indicators from famous YouTubers, only to find out that MACD + RSI worked better.

My secret is just four words: patterns are king. For five years, I have only traded the 'head-and-shoulders bottom' and 'head-and-shoulders top' patterns, resolutely avoiding all other patterns, and have successfully raised my win rate to over 90%.

Head-and-shoulders bottom pattern: a golden signal for reversals

When a certain coin shows a “left shoulder-bottom-right shoulder” pattern, and the volume in the right shoulder increases, it’s a signal to enter. For example, in 2020, ETH formed a head-and-shoulders bottom at $200, where the volume on the right shoulder was 1.5 times that of the left shoulder. I decisively entered, and six months later it rose to $1400, earning me 6 times.

Head-and-shoulders top pattern: a lifesaver for escaping peaks

In contrast to the head-and-shoulders bottom, when a “left shoulder-top-right shoulder” pattern appears with decreased volume in the right shoulder, you must exit. In 2021, BTC formed a head-and-shoulders top at $69,000, with the right shoulder volume 30% less than the left shoulder. I sold all my positions and avoided the crash to $30,000, preserving my profits of tens of millions.

These two patterns may seem simple, but they hold the key to funding: the head-and-shoulders bottom is a signal of 'main force accumulation completed', while the head-and-shoulders top is a warning of 'funds exiting'. Using this method, I grew my assets to 8 digits in just one year, not because I was particularly skilled, but because I rejected 90% of 'ineffective opportunities'.

II. A guide for beginners to avoid pitfalls: 3 practical insights earned through hard experience

1. Technical indicators: don’t be an “indicator collector”; 2 is enough

Many people are addicted to technical indicators, with dozens of 'high win rate strategies' stored on their phones, only to end up confused in practice. I made the same mistake early on, learning every indicator from YouTube gurus, only to find that MACD + RSI was better.

MACD for trend analysis, RSI for entry points:

A daily MACD golden cross (white line crossing yellow line) + RSI recovering from below 30 is a bullish signal;

A daily MACD death cross (yellow line crossing white line) + RSI dropping from above 70 is a bearish signal.

In 2023, SOL rose from $10 to $100, and I relied on these two indicators: entering when MACD showed a golden cross and RSI was at 35, and exiting when MACD showed a death cross and RSI was at 75, hardly monitoring in between, effortlessly earning 8 times.

Remember: indicators are tools, not commandments. Instead of learning 100 indicators, it’s better to master 1 indicator to perfection — I studied the Martingale strategy for 3 years and understood the core logic of 'small losses, big gains' to truly get started.

2. Position management: half position trading is my 'lifesaver'

“Going all in, if you win you get the pretty girls, if you lose you have to work” - how many people has this saying harmed? I've seen too many enter the market with 10x leverage and blow up their accounts with just one fluctuation, while I have stuck to “half position trading” for five years without exception, even with 20x leverage.

The beauty of half positions:

Withstanding volatility: when the CPI data was released in 2022, BTC plummeted 10% instantly, and many with full positions liquidated. I held half positions against the volatility, and instead, added positions during the rebound to earn 20%;

Stable mindset: even if I lose 10% on half positions, it only amounts to 5% of the total capital, so I won’t panic into chaotic trading;

Adding positions with profits: after a 20% gain, use 50% of the profits to add positions, which amplifies returns without increasing capital risk.

Some say setting my stop loss at -100% is too extreme, but this is based on 'entering after pattern confirmation' — for five years, over 80% of my entry points were at the early stages of trend initiation, and I rarely needed to use stop losses. Beginners shouldn’t learn this trick; I recommend setting a stop loss of 5%-8% paired with half positions, which can at least help you survive three cycles of bull and bear markets.

3. Holding time: short-term for practice, long-term for big profits

I come from a short-term trading background, using 10-20x leverage, and rarely holding positions for more than 2 hours. However, after observation, I found that those who truly make big money usually hold positions for over 24 hours on average. My advice is:

Beginners should start with short-term: use 5-minute and 15-minute candlesticks for practice, familiarize with indicators and patterns, and accumulate practical experience;

Experts trade medium-term: capturing daily level patterns and holding positions for 1-2 weeks. For example, APT rose from $10 to $40 in 2023, and I held for 12 days to earn 3 times my investment, which is much less stressful than short-term trading.

My trading times are quite fixed: 7:30-10:30 AM and 7:30 PM-12:00 AM, which are the periods when U.S. stocks are most correlated, with significant and regular fluctuations. Bitcoin trades 24/7, but I never hold positions overnight — the news can be too volatile, and a black swan event at 3 AM can wipe out several days of profits.

III. Trading psychology: overcome greed and fear, and you will win over 90% of people

The biggest pitfall in the crypto world is not the market but human nature. I've seen too many people with good skills blow up their accounts due to a mindset collapse. I’ve summarized 3 “anti-human nature” insights:

1. Don’t believe in 'getting rich overnight', believe in 'slowly getting rich'

When I first entered the market, I fantasized about '10 times in 3 months', but frequent trading led me to execute over 1,000 trades in a year, resulting in a loss of 500,000 in fees. Later, I forced myself to 'only make 5 trades a month', and my win rate instead rose from 40% to 90%.

True experts in the crypto world don’t double their money every day but earn a stable 50%-100% annually. It’s like rolling a snowball; $200,000 doubles every year, and in 5 years, it becomes $6.4 million, enough to change lives.

2. Add positions during panic, reduce positions during greed

In 2022, when BTC dropped to $16,000, the group was filled with wailing, and some cut their losses to exit. I, however, used half my position to add — because the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern had already appeared, and panic was indeed an opportunity. Later, it rose to $48,000, and I called for 'reducing positions' in the group, but no one believed me, and it fell back to $20,000.

Remember: retail investors' emotions are always a contrary indicator. When everyone is shouting 'buy the dip', it is often a peak; when everyone is cursing 'junk coins', it is often a bottom.

3. Accepting small losses allows for big gains

I have a habit: if a single loss exceeds 2% of my total capital, I stop trading for the day. Once in 2021, I lost 5% on ETH and immediately shut my computer, avoiding the tragedy of trying to 'recover' by adding leverage.

Trading is like playing Mahjong; experts allow themselves to make small wins but never take big risks. Out of 10 trades, 3 may be small losses, 6 small gains, and 1 big win. Over time, this makes you a winner.

IV. A guide for ordinary people to make a comeback: a plan with two small targets for the next bull market

Currently, I am waiting for the next bull market, with a simple method that ordinary people can replicate:

Choose the right targets: only trade the top 20 mainstream coins + 1-2 trending new coins (like SUI, SEI in 2023), and avoid scam coins;

Wait for the pattern to appear: after the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern is confirmed, enter with a 30% position, and stop loss if it breaks the neckline;

Partial profit-taking: sell 20% after a 30% rise, sell 30% after a 50% rise, sell half after a 100% rise, and let the remaining profits run;

Keep enough cash: always maintain 30% cash, which can be used to buy quality coins that were wrongfully sold during the late stage of a bull market.

A big shot once said: 'Opportunities in the crypto world come once every four years; seizing one can change your fate.' I have caught two bull markets in ten years, going from 30,000 to a small target, relying not on luck but on 'being patient, being disciplined, and knowing when to let go'.

Finally, a piece of advice for beginners: wealth can indeed be made in the crypto world, but don’t think about 'getting rich without effort'. I spend 4 hours a day reviewing patterns and studied one strategy for 5 years, achieving a 90% win rate. You can be slow, but you cannot be lazy — in the next bull market, may we both achieve our goals.#币圈