Late-night Mark Inspiration

Currently, there are 3 mainstream methods for BTC: MVRV indicator + standardization to create bull peak price models —

1. Using all historical MVRV data

2. Using MVRV data starting from 2012

3. Using MVRV data with a rolling time window of the past 4 years

It can be seen that the shorter the time scale for using MVRV, the smaller the degree of deviation for +1 standard deviation and +2 standard deviations; and vice versa.

Previously, I preferred the 2012 version; however, the 4-year rolling version of the price model captures the bull peaks more effectively (the other two versions mainly differ when facing a series of diminishing bull peaks, with the price model becoming increasingly overstated).

The reason is also easy to understand: in the process of calculating the historical cumulative average and historical cumulative standard deviation, the longer the historical data incorporated, the greater the deviation of the predictions for the present and future.

Therefore, in the process of creating similar bull peak price models, accurately determining the time span of the metadata used is crucial for capturing future bull peaks.