Pengu’s rise has been incredibly strong, climbing almost non-stop. I believe the main driver is its ETF application, which could potentially make it the next meme coin listed alongside DOGE. But if we look at the probabilities, DOGE had over a 90% chance of ETF approval, while Pengu’s odds were just 40%, according to what I read. I even checked with ChatGPT — Pengu’s application came from a relatively small institution. That’s why I didn’t invest, assuming it wouldn't get approved.
Ironically 😂, it kept climbing steadily. Whether the ETF gets approved or not, the price is rising first — we’ll talk later. Also, several exchanges recently changed their avatars to penguins, adding fuel to the hype. The momentum has been wild.
Still, missing out is just that — a miss. Even if I had entered, it wouldn’t have been a large position. In hindsight, it was a misjudgment — even a small bet could’ve paid off. But let’s be real: applying for an ETF is still speculative.
Right now, I see two possible scenarios:
1. Pengu keeps rallying — hype, community, and capital keep growing, and it miraculously gets approved. But this seems unlikely.
2. The ETF play is pure hype — they know it won’t be approved but are using it as a marketing tactic. If the SEC gives any negative signals, Pengu’s current price probably won’t hold.
I lean toward the second scenario. Aside from the weak backing and low approval chance, there’s another reason: look at PEPE, the leading meme coin this cycle. Its rise came with heavy social backing — Musk, Trump, etc. Pengu is now approaching PEPE’s market cap, and based on that comparison, it seems overvalued.
I’m now watching for a short opportunity — maybe if ETH hits ~$4,000 and fails to break resistance. In that case, I’ll open a small Pengu short and aim for a modest profit.
